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The protests against electricity price hike in Yerevan have mostly ended. But that perceived victory has only postponed a reckoning with the real issue behind the protests: Armenia’s relations with its ally and geopolitical overlord, Russia, analyst Micheal Cecire writes in Foreign Policy.

At first blush, the insistence by both protesters and government officials that Electric Yerevan had nothing to do with the “Euromaidan” made sense. “This was Armenia’s protest, after all, not Ukraine’s.” the author writes, noting that  given their country’s lopsided economic dependence on Moscow, however, Armenians won’t be able to postpone confronting the Russia factor forever.

“Yet the unspoken reality is that Armenia’s sclerotic autocracy and Russian domination are mutually reinforcing. Armenia’s problems did not occur in a vacuum; instead, its uncompetitive economy and illiberal political system are very much insulated and augmented by its subservience to Moscow,” the article reads.

The author reminds that Inter RAO is owned by the Russian state company that owns a majority of the Armenian electric distribution company ENA. More broadly, Moscow holds all the cards when it comes to the Armenian economy. “Russia’s gradual monopolization of key sectors of the Armenian economy has occurred with the full knowledge and consent of the Armenian government,” he writes.

“But there is growing evidence that Yerevan’s Russia alliance is just another vector of Russian control, rather than the product of Kremlin altruism. Moscow uses its patronage as a strategic cudgel.” 

According to the author, while the Armenian government bears the lion’s share for the situation in the country, “the protesters’ omission of the Russia variable ignores a brutal political reality.”

Iran nuclear deal could help transform Armenia from an international buffer state into a transit corridor for Iranian trade and hydrocarbons. This is doubly true if normalization protocols with Turkey, though currently moribund, can be revived.

In conclusion, the author states that the positive outcome of Electric Yerevan is that civil society could bring Armenian elites to the bargaining table. “This is an important precedent, and can serve as a starting point for future negotiations. Events [of] this summer show that progress is possible,” the article reads.

 

 

 

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