WASHINGTON. – Decision of the French National Assembly to bring closer Turkey and Azerbaijan can collapse Turkish-Armenian protocols, APA analyst at Princeton University (NJ) on Turkey and the Middle East Akin Unver stated.

Earlier, French National Assembly passed the bill penalizing denial of the Armenian Genocide. 

According to the expert, the U.S. left Iraq leaving behind a huge vacuum of power in the Middle East, while Russia, Iran and Turkey attempt to fill it.

“Currently the possibility of the conflict is higher. Azerbaijan, getting used of the successful steps made in the region, may launch a military campaign in Karabakh,” he stated.

According to the expert, when Russia prolonged the contract of its base in Armenia’s Gyumri city, it also signed the agreement of protecting Armenia from foreign attacks. Russia worries about the fate of its military contingent in Armenia, as Georgia cancelled the agreement on permitting Russian troops to use the Georgian territory for transferring to south. Russia should use the territory of either Georgia or Azerbaijan to support its armed forces in Armenia. However, as it is not possible, Russia’s obligation to protect Armenia is uncertain.

“On the other hand, Russia needs the Gabala radar station. The rental contract runs out in 2012. On rising the rental price from $7 million to $100 million annually, Azerbaijan hints that in case Russia supports [Azerbaijan] in Karabakh issue, they may come into agreement on price” the expert said. “According to the scenario, on getting the support of Turkey and Russia in the Karabakh issue, Azerbaijan appears in a very vantage place. Whereas the French President Nikolas Sarkozy and the Armenian Diaspora in France put Armenia in a very difficult situation on Nagorno-Karabakh issue.”