The weakening of Iran is opening an opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to expand his influence in the region. His goal is to block Israel’s integration into the Middle East and undermine its emerging alliances. Experts warn: “Tel Aviv must prepare for an era of rivalry with the Sunni axis, reduce its dependence on the United States, and forge new alliances.”

“Turkey is not an enemy state,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed last week in an interview with foreign media.

So what is it, then? Israel is closely watching the reorganization of the Sunni bloc in the region, led by Turkey with Qatari support against the backdrop of the weakening Iranian axis, Israel Hayom writes.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who views Israel as a regional power, is working actively to prevent it from becoming a major trade hub on the route connecting East and West. He is also extending Turkey’s influence into active conflict zones across the Middle East, providing refuge to senior Hamas officials and seeking to entrench himself in Syria.

This is not war in the traditional Middle Eastern sense. Nevertheless, the ambitions, rhetoric, and recent actions of the Turkish president are keeping Israel under constant strain. Alongside the weakening of the Iranian axis, Israel is witnessing the rise of a new-old regional center of power — the Sunni bloc.

One concern is that Saudi Arabia, disappointed by what it sees as limited U.S. action against Iran, could become an influential player in this Sunni bloc. That would allow Erdoğan to drive a deep wedge into Israeli-Saudi efforts to move toward a peace agreement and even reverse progress already achieved.

Preparing for confrontation

Erdoğan is benefiting from the weakening of Iran and the pro-Iranian axis. At the same time, he is trying to position himself as an active mediator opposing new U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Iran, for its part, is not giving up. Israel is preparing for further confrontation aimed at weakening and ultimately overthrowing the current regime.

Professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told Israel Hayom that Israel has found itself in a state of “strategic uncertainty.”

“Israel has found itself in a reality where it cannot convert its military achievements into a strategic outcome — that is, into shaping a new regional architecture,” Michael noted. “This uncertainty arose because the Americans entered negotiations with the Iranians without truly understanding the nature of the Iranian regime. It was obvious that there was no realistic way to bridge the gaps between the sides, and that the Iranians were simply using the time to rebuild their capabilities, since they have not abandoned the axis as a strategic concept or their goal of destroying Israel.”

“Hezbollah is the jewel of the Iranian axis. That is why the Iranians demanded that the ceasefire with the United States be tied to a ceasefire in Lebanon, in order to preserve Hezbollah as their main strategic asset. This is also a signal to all the other proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Yemen, which have been severely weakened: Iran will come to their aid just as it helps Hezbollah. That is why their desire to recreate a ring of fire around us is already clearly visible. As long as this regime exists, there is no chance Iran will change course.”

Will NATO enter the game?

Michael is convinced that Israel must be ready for an order to begin action and for a direct continuation of Operation Roaring Lion, which formally was never completed. “For now, Israel needs to let the Americans control the Iran file, but we must be ready to deliver a powerful retaliatory strike if the Iranian regime drags us into conflict and attacks our territory,” he said.

“Trump may try to create a coalition of Gulf states and possibly NATO against Iran. In that case, he may demand restraint from Israel in the event of a future Iranian attack — similar to the demand President George H.W. Bush made of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. Back then, Shamir agreed not to attack Iraq when Scud missiles were launched at Israel. Today, in my view, Israel is obliged to respond forcefully in the event of an attack, even at the cost of disagreements with President Trump and a crisis in relations with the United States.”

Retired Colonel Professor Gabi Siboni, CEO of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, explained the link between the weakening of the Iranian axis and Turkey’s growing influence in the region: “A weak Iran suits Turkey, but a renewed Iran does not. That is precisely why the Turks blocked an attempt to deploy Kurdish formations into Iran, and not only because of their own conflict with the Kurds.”

“Iran’s weakening is obvious, and the regime is living on borrowed time,” Siboni continued. “Whether this trend continues depends on what the Americans do. If offensive operations expand to Iran’s entire economic infrastructure, it will take the Iranians decades to recover. We must remember: Iran is capable of living on bread alone for another century while continuing to pursue the goal of destroying the Jewish state. They will do everything possible to recreate the ring of fire. They have the desire. The question is whether they will have the capability.”

Speaking about Turkey’s rise as a regional power, Siboni noted: “The radical Sunni axis led by Turkey and Qatar is gaining strength. Erdoğan’s plan is to restore the influence of the Ottoman Empire across the Middle East. He maintains a huge military base in Somalia and is trying to challenge the trade corridor from India through Israel to the rest of the world. Instead, he wants to create an alternative route through Turkey, Pakistan, and Syria. Turkey is also trying to operate inside Israel, including during elections, through influence campaigns and activity in Jerusalem’s Holy Basin. It finances and builds mosques while trying to challenge the Israeli presence.”

Toward defense independence

Researchers argue that Israel must adopt a new model for confronting these challenges, including Iran, Turkey, their spheres of influence, and even the U.S. administration. Instead of total dependence on the United States, Israel should seek maximum defense autonomy and build additional alliances in the region.

“Lately I have been advocating a gradual phaseout of American military aid, and the prime minister is moving in that direction,” Siboni said. He stressed that Israel’s goal is not to put all its eggs in one American basket. “We also need to begin reducing dependence on American munitions and develop business partnerships with other countries, such as South Korea, India, and Japan, in order to develop our own defense industry,” he said.

Kobi Michael similarly called on Israel to reorganize its regional and defense ties: “In everything related to the military sphere, Israel needs to reduce dependence on external supply chains and increase domestic production so as not to rely exclusively on the United States. We have already experienced a partial embargo under the Biden administration and have seen its risks. We need to develop cooperation with other countries, including Serbia, Hungary, and India, which we can rely on during a crisis.”

Isolation instead of direct war

Commenting on Erdoğan’s recent moves, Michael said he does not consider a direct Turkish war against Israel likely. “Turkey is not seeking war with Israel; it seeks to isolate and weaken it,” he said. “Turkey is entering every conflict zone in the Middle East as an influential player, including Lebanon and Syria. It is operating in the exclusive economic zones off Greece and Cyprus and is strengthening ties with Egypt and Pakistan. These steps also have demonstrative significance. Members of the Sunni bloc, including Turkey and Pakistan, are seeking to create a defense alliance, and we should not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear power.”

Michael described the emerging axis as deeply problematic: “Turkey is using this alliance to establish regional hegemony and exploit Iran’s weakness. At the same time, Trump and Erdoğan have very warm relations. We also must not forget that Erdoğan’s party is the main patron of the Muslim Brotherhood. It allows Hamas to operate from Turkish territory and build terrorist infrastructure in Judea and Samaria. When all these elements are combined with the perception of Israel as a regional rival, they result in hard-line hostility — both in rhetoric and in practice. This significantly complicates Israel’s ability to achieve its goals.”

Israel’s military preparations for confrontation with Iran remain at their peak, alongside the continuing low-intensity war on all fronts, including Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. At the same time, Siboni recommends including Turkey in Israel’s operational scenarios and expanding military capabilities with this factor in mind.

“The army must strengthen Israel’s navy, because Turkey has colossal naval capabilities and, if it wishes, can cut off Israel’s access to the sea,” Siboni concluded. “In addition, the sale of the Israeli shipping company Zim to a Turkish company partly owned by Qatar must be blocked.”

Against the backdrop of all the changes around the country, Israel must not lose sight of its main goal. “We must not forget that Israel’s top priority is to complete the mission in Iran, all the way to regime change,” the expert concluded.