A year after Nagorno-Karabakh’s April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire, the report of the International Crisis Group says.

According to the experts, both sides seem to recognize the danger that in case of escalation two major regional powers, Russia and Turkey, which have treaties with, respectively, Armenia and Azerbaijan, will be engaged.

“While violence remains at a relatively low boil, any escalation quickly could spin out of control, and the danger of more deadly fighting involving highly destructive weaponry is real. Failure to contain a future escalation likely would result in heavy casualties coupled with foreign intervention. Troop deployment from any of the regional powers would deeply impact Armenia and Azerbaijan, and their sovereignty, at a time when both have just celebrated 25 years of independence,” the report notes.

Armenia – concerned about Nagorno-Karabakh’s security and angered by Baku’s increased assertiveness – insists on a lowering of security risks before launching substantive talks.  At the same time, Azerbaijan is frustrated with the longstanding status quo and concerned that additional security measures could further cement it.

According to the analysts, the coordinated actions of Russia, France and the U.S.—with the strong involvement of their leadership—are the best way to prevent the resumption of war.

 “[…] [T]hey also should press Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders to tone down hostile rhetoric, soften their negotiating positions and acknowledge – privately, but also publicly – that this conflict ultimately will only be resolved through negotiations, not by force,” the authors conclude.