The downturn in the tourism sector caused by the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to the fact that in 2021, global GDP will fall from $ 1.7 to 2.4 trillion, noted in the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published on Wednesday in Geneva.
A revival in international tourism is expected in the second half of this year, however, according to the UNCTAD report, losses of $ 1.7 to 2.4 trillion are still expected in 2021 compared to 2019, the experts noted.
The report contains possible scenarios for the development of the situation. In the most pessimistic scenario, international travel will decline by 75% this year. In this case, the tourism sector will lose $ 948 billion, and global GDP will suffer a total loss of $ 2.4 trillion.
The second scenario is based on an estimated 63% reduction in international tourist travel.
The third assumes that there will be 75% fewer visits to countries with a low level of vaccination against coronavirus, and in countries where a significant part of the population has been vaccinated, the tourist flow will decrease by 37%.
According to the second scenario, the loss of world GDP is projected at $ 1.7 trillion, and according to the third - 1.8 trillion.
The authors of the report draw attention to the significant impact of mass vaccination on the tourism sector. In countries with high vaccination coverage, the economic losses will not be as high as in countries where vaccination is slow or barely started.
The tourism sector is expected to recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates, such as France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, experts say.
The report cited travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, low travel confidence, and a poor economic environment as the main barriers to the development of the industry.
In 2020, the direct and indirect losses of global GDP due to the slowdown in international tourism amounted to, according to UNCTAD, $ 2.4 trillion. In 12 months, the number of international tourist trips decreased by 1 billion, or 73%.
The developing countries were particularly hard hit, where the flow of tourists decreased by an estimated 60-80%. The worst losses were suffered by Northeast and Southeast Asia, as well as Oceania, North Africa, and South Asia. At the same time, the decline in tourism affected North America, Western Europe, and the Caribbean to a lesser extent.
