Ukraine reportedly has 20 Turkish TB-2 drones. They may not matter in the wider war with Russia, David Axe noted in his Forbes article.
"We knew Ukraine had Turkish-made hunter-killer drones, each capable of finding and destroying enemy armored vehicles without exposing crews to enemy fire. We didn’t know many of the propeller-driven Bayraktar TB-2s Kiev managed to acquire as a powerful Russian army massed along the border with Ukraine," he noted.
Twenty drones is not much, while even the tired Ukrainian air force has about 125 manned combat aircraft, and the Russian air force can muster hundreds of manned aircraft to attack Ukraine.
The Ukrainian fleet of armed drones seems even more paltry when you consider that Russia has deployed thousands of armored vehicles — enough for at least 75 battalion tactical teams — within range of Ukraine.
But the TB-2, in the right conditions and with the right support, is a powerful weapon. A 21-foot camera-equipped drone, flown by a crew of three on the ground, can carry a pair of Smart Micro Munition guided missiles up to 80 miles in line-of-sight.
During a brief but bitter war in 2020, Azerbaijan's drone fleet of about 10 TB-2s destroyed at least 567 Armenian vehicles, artillery pieces and air defense systems.
"Russia isn’t Armenia. And a possible, wider war between Russia and Ukraine would be much more violent—and dangerous for anything that flies—than the relatively low-intensity Azerbaijan-Armenia war," he added.
Azerbaijani TB-2s in most cases not only managed to slip past the Armenian air defenses, but the drones also damaged this defense. TB-2s were shot down by three Strela-10 short-range air defense systems, 16 Osa-SHORAD vehicles and a ZSU-23-4 mobile gun.
Instead, the Armenians shot down two or even three TB-2s. Armenia reportedly unsuccessfully attempted to jam the drone control signal with its Krasukha-4 electronic warfare equipment.
But Russian forces have more and better air defense and electronic warfare systems than Armenian forces have or had. Russia is deploying thousands of man-portable air defense systems, self-propelled artillery mounts and surface-to-air missiles.
However, Russian forces sometimes found it difficult to counter small drones. Islamic State militants have repeatedly launched swarms of small drones loaded with explosives at Russian bases in Syria.
Russian jammers blocked some of the drones. Others were shot down by Pantsir anti-aircraft missile systems. But some got through.
The TB-2 is larger than a production quadcopter and theoretically easier to spot. But it's also faster. And he can fire his missiles at targets miles away.
However, all of these factors can be controversial. It doesn't matter how effective the Ukrainian drones are or how ineffective the Russian air defense system is against them if the drones never get off the ground.
A Russian offensive into Ukraine would certainly have been preceded by devastating artillery fire, air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, and land-launched ballistic missiles.
Given how much the Russians fear and loathe the TB-2, unmanned units - their command trailers, transmitters and crews, and the air vehicles themselves - will undoubtedly be at the top of the list of targets.
Meanwhile, Kiev has placed orders for additional TB-2s and also signed an agreement with Turkey to manufacture drones under license.
