The Russian economy is doing better than expected under tough sanctions and is likely to face only a shallow, albeit protracted, recession, JPMorgan said.

According to it, business sentiment surveys in the country signal a not-so-deep recession in Russia and therefore suggest higher risks to our growth forecasts.

In March, JPMorgan forecast that Russia's gross domestic product would contract 35% qoq in the second quarter and 7% for the year. The IMF expects the Russian economy to contract by 8.5% in 2022.

However, JPMorgan told clients last week that the country's economy is in better shape than expected, based on business surveys and high-frequency indicators such as electricity consumption and financial flows.

Therefore, the available data does not indicate a sharp drop in activity, at least at the moment, analysts at JPMorgan wrote. GDP in the second quarter is likely to be better than forecast in March, they said.