The newspaper "Haykakan Zhamanak", owned by the family of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, published another anonymous article titled "Why through the territory of Armenia? Who are the main beneficiaries of the corridor, and why a corridor and not a road?". The article refers to the corridor requested by Azerbaijan, the beneficiaries of which, according to the anonymous author, are Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia.
"After the 44-day war, according to the November 9, 2020 joint statement, all economic and transportation routes in the region were supposed to be unblocked.
However, Azerbaijan, several months later, has still not responded to the Armenian government's proposal to open three checkpoints on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. And this despite the fact that the trilateral statement of November 9 did not say a word about this. On the contrary, it talks about unblocking the roads.
And why a corridor and not a road? Why through Armenian territory and who are the main beneficiaries of the corridor?
One of the main beneficiaries of the corridor, through the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, is Azerbaijan.
The corridor will allow Azerbaijan to:
- Carry out cargo shipments along the Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan-Turkey route on more favorable terms
- have control over freights that pass through Armenian territory from Iran
- to use as a burning issue for aggravation of domestic political situation and public sentiments in Armenia
- Azerbaijan has unconcealed ambitions regarding Syunik as well. The corridor is the first step towards creating a legitimate basis for the return of Azerbaijanis to these areas.
If the road is in the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, the transportation of goods will be controlled by the Armenian side, and Azerbaijan, as part of the transit zone, will have to pay taxes to Armenia for transportation, which is simply not acceptable to Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani side, for example, has refused to use Armenian airspace for years. And all this only because it did not want to pay taxes. Azerbaijan does not need an economically developed Armenia.
Azerbaijan can get a road and railroad through Iranian territory, but Iran will never give a corridor to Azerbaijan, and neither will Armenia. But Azerbaijan is trying to get a corridor from Armenia by force. After all, this is much less feasible in the case of Iran.
Another major beneficiary of a corridor through Armenian territory is Turkey.
The corridor will allow Turkey:
- Provide unimpeded communication with the Turkic world
- Block the prospect of a possible gas pipeline from Iran through Armenian territory to Europe
In the case of a road through the sovereign territory of Armenia, both Azerbaijani and Turkish cargo traffic will be controlled by Armenia, they will have to pay taxes in Armenia, as a result Armenia will have an even more developed economy, and Armenia's role and importance in the region will become more important. And all of this, to put it mildly, is not desirable for either Azerbaijan or Turkey.
Russia is also one of the main beneficiaries of the corridor through Armenia.
The corridor will allow Russia to:
- Influence freight traffic from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan and Turkey
- Exert influence on cargoes passing through Armenian territory from Iran
- Exert additional leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan and control the most important east-west road junction.
After the start of the special operation against Ukraine, after Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia, Russia is trying to find a market for both exports and imports. In this case, playing Turkey on two strings with the West and Russia is an ideal option, the only thing left is to establish a land link with Turkey. In this context, the role of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region has increased, and now Azerbaijan can become a platform for Russia to export gas and oil to the West.
No matter how much Russian official platforms try to deny Russia's participation in the opening of the corridor through the sovereign territory of Armenia, Russian ambitions, the facts say otherwise.
First, the inaction of Russia and the CSTO against the Azerbaijani military that invaded Armenia's sovereign territory, the failure to deliver weapons to Armenia, the inertness of Russian troops stationed in Armenia, and the aggressiveness of Russia's ally Azerbaijan on the border with Armenia.
By the way, Azerbaijan, Turkey or Russia are in favor of a corridor through Armenian territory under Russian control.
Russia has several options for getting a corridor through Armenian territory.
1. Russia's ally Azerbaijan weakens Armenia by military escalation to the point where Armenia is forced to join the Union State or the Russian Federation.
2. As a result of the escalation, Russia's ally Azerbaijan manages to occupy a corridor on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia up to Nakhchivan, which will then be controlled by the Russian Federation.
