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YEREVAN. – Azerbaijan may have success at the beginning of the war with Armenia but the end will be catastrophic, Head of the Centre for military and political forecasts at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis Anatoly Tsyganok told Armenian News-NEWS.am correspondent.

Regarding the balance of power in the region, the expert said that Azerbaijani budget is comparable to the Armenian.

“This is the reason I do not want to dwell on the balance of power,” the expert said and added that Azerbaijan regularly speaks on making any effort, even to include military forces to have the situation of 1990s.

The main problem is here. Azerbaijani military doctrine is not quite ethical. Azerbaijan approaches Armenia as its chief threat. The second threat is Russia.

According to the expert, the main threat for Azerbaijan is oil factor and Iran, particularly Iran’s position regarding Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel.

The next most important issue for Azerbaijan to use military force against the Armenian side in the context of threats is the position of the international community. Azerbaijan’s main wealth is oil and European Union is extremely interested in it.

Eventually if Azerbaijan resumes war, it will lose it. EU, UN and NATO will never agree to the application of military force for the Karabakh conflict resolution. Azerbaijan may have success at the beginning but the end will be catastrophic, the expert concluded.

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