An intergovernmental agreement on the NABUCCO project is to be signed in Ankara on July 13, said Romanian Minister of Economy Adriean Videanu, who is on an official visit to Azerbaijan. This is not a piece of welcome news for the Azerbaijani authorities – just a few days ago the country’s authorities pledged to sell all the gas produced for export to Gazprom (Russia). The decision in favor of Russia was a political one – Azerbaijan’s hurt feelings surged up against Turkey and the entire world for their attempts to get the Armenian-Turkish relations improved and the long-lasting partial blockade of Armenia ceased.

The appearance of Romanian minister in Baku to announce the significant event to be held in Ankara that implies consolidation of the NABUCCO prospects at the government level was quite prompt and not without a hidden design.

Baku’s trick in signing a gas agreement with Moscow was unexpected by many. According to the document, from 2010 Azerbaijan is obliged to pipe gas from the Shah-Deniz gas field to Russia (i.e., in opposite to Turkey direction). It is no coincidence that Polish President Lech Kaczyński, uneasy and therefore hardly careful about words, visited Baku. He spoke much, mainly off the point, pronounced for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, while thinking of the gas Russia was carrying off from under his very nose. The more annoyed he was the farther he wandered away from the subject of interest to him.

That is not the question, however. No doubt, Azerbaijan will sign the NABUCCO agreement as well. Azerbaijani Minister of Industry and Energy Natig Aliyev will not “place ashes upon his head” any more, saying that the project is still “mere verbiage”. Azerbaijan may also sign dozens of agreements on the laying of pipelines from Baku to wherever one chooses. As to oil — please, it will be piped as far as Odessa, Brody and even Ceyhan. They will support Georgia with gas, promise larger amounts to Greece and let even Italy have its fair share. Everyone will have their fair shares! But it is only agreements that are in question. It is not Azerbaijan that is to implement construction projects. As long as the Europeans speak off the point, Baku is well aware of the fact that Russia will not allow a gas main to run through the Caspian Sea even if the course of the Volga River will have to be changed. Iran will not supply its gas to Europe through the Caucasus – shorter routes and more reliable buyers are available. So there will be no NABUCCO project, rather Russian-Turkish struggle for influence on Azerbaijan – a traditional historical struggle. In the course of time, Iran will join this struggle. But no NABUCCO project — if any, then without the Azerbaijani gas promised to Russia.