There are no preconditions for the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides to reach a compromise on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the negotiation process may take more than dozen years. Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov said this during a videoconference.

According to him, the Russian side believes that the status quo is not the best decision, but the parties to the conflict should be given an opportunity to resolve all disputed issues. "The West often speaks of intolerance towards the status quo, whereas a hasty decision is not in Moscow's interests; that is why it is pointless to blame Moscow. It is better to negotiate for ten years rather than to war for one day,” he said.

The analyst noted that there is nothing sensational in the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about a phased settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as this terminology was used 2-3 years ago. "The status of Karabakh, the issue of refugees and regions is being discussed at the negotiating table. There is the ‘phased’ [resolution] also in the Madrid Principles, which are actively discussed by the Armenian society. There is a certain nuance here: ‘Phased’ implies a rigid bi-phase. However, the issue of the liberation of the regions must be closely linked, including with the content side, on the status regarding Karabakh. If this is accepted as a basis, then the processes must be clearly synchronized, and the status issue must be resolved immediately, as the liberation of the territories is linked to security risks. Otherwise, the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the seven regions could lead to an escalation of the conflict," Markedonov said.

The political scientist added that in the renewed Madrid Principles, the referendum is defined as a legally binding procedure, and it is risky for Baku because as a result, Karabakh may be outside the borders of Azerbaijan. "Of course, there are gaps in those principles," the Russian analyst concluded.