“The Russian threat to invade Ukraine, where Turkey is the largest foreign investor, could create more tensions between Moscow and Ankara – especially as the Turkish president has economic and personal interests in Ukraine,” wrote analyst Zvi Barel to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

“Given Erdogan’s web of economic and personal interests with Ukraine and Russia’s strategic interests, he may soon have to make a fateful decision. If Russia decides to invade its neighbor, will Turkey stand with the West? Or will it maintain neutrality that will, financially, cost it dearly?” the article reads.

Turkey has close ties with both Russia and Ukraine. In 2019, Turkey received S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia, which led to the imposition of US sanctions. Turkey and Russia have close economic cooperation, especially in the energy sector.

Ukraine and Turkey have improved their relations through trade, investment and military cooperation over the past few years. Turkey sold Ukraine Bayraktar TB2 drones, which drew sharp criticism from Moscow. Turkey also has an extensive investment portfolio in Ukraine worth millions of dollars.

Turkey quickly offered to play the role of mediator between Moscow and Kyiv. In January, Erdogan repeated his call for mediation and invited Russian and Ukrainian leaders to Turkey. The Kremlin said the Russian president would visit Turkey at Erdogan's invitation, but no date had yet been announced.

Turkey opposed Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, but did not support Western sanctions against Moscow. Similarly, Ankara argues that sanctions against Russia still do not address current tensions. The United States and European Union states have threatened Moscow with "massive" economic sanctions if it continues to attack Ukraine.

The Russian threat to invade Ukraine now creates another possible front for a clash between Moscow and Ankara, as the two countries have nearly completed two gas pipelines from Russia to Turkey.

Both of these pipelines are now under threat of US sanctions. If these sanctions are implemented, they would impose serious fines on the companies and investors involved in the development of the pipelines, as well as on the firms that provide services to the contractors of these projects.

“Once again, Erdogan finds himself at a tricky crossroads,” the newspaper said.