In the worst-case scenario, Europe's energy crisis could cut car production by nearly 40% or more than 1 million cars quarterly by the end of 2023, S&P Global Mobility reported.

The auto industry supply chain, which has already survived the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, could face severe pressure from soaring energy prices or even blackouts.

Given Europe's skyrocketing energy prices...a harsh winter could put some auto industries at risk of not being able to keep their production lines running, the report said.

Vehicle production costs have already risen to €687 and €773 per car, up from pre-energy crisis levels of €50, putting a strain on smaller suppliers in particular.

Beginning this quarter and through the end of 2023, S&P Global Mobility predicts that quarterly production at European auto assembly plants will be between 4 and 4.5 million units. But"with potential utility constraints, it could be reduced to 2.75 to 3 million units per quarter.

According to the forecast, as European suppliers export parts around the world, all automakers will be affected one way or another.

Edwin Pope, chief analyst at S&P Global Mobility, told Reuters that the analysis was done before the likely sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines late last month.

Events like this will inevitably tip the scales toward the lower end of what we predicted, especially in terms of how long it will take to repair things like this, Pope said.

While the auto industry will be able to survive this winter, if Europe doesn't have a plan for next winter, many suppliers may not survive, he said.