After diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. seemed to plummet to another low earlier this year, the kingdom now seems eager to improve relations with the Biden administration, Insider writes.
According to analysts, it was the Democratic Party's better-than-expected results in the midterm elections that strengthened President Joe Biden's position. Many predicted the Republican Party's meteoric success in the recent midterm elections, helped by economic problems associated with high inflation and rising fuel prices.
In the run-up to the election, members of the Democratic Party accused Saudi Arabia of reneging on an agreement to increase oil production and cutting it instead, part of a ploy to increase inflation and reduce the Democrats' chances in the midterm. But instead the Democrats managed to keep their majority in the Senate, and will be limited to a smaller-than-expected loss of seats in the House of Representatives.
Thus, in recent weeks, the Saudis have taken a series of diplomatic steps that appear to have been aimed at improving the tainted relationship with the White House.
In October, the country voted in favor of a U.N. resolution "not to recognize Russia's annexation of several areas in eastern Ukraine," and also increased its aid to Ukraine by $400 million.
The Wall Street Journal also reported last week that Saudi Arabia might partially reverse the oil production cuts that so irritated Biden and instead increase it, though the Saudi energy minister denied the report.
"It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will want to mend ties with the [Biden] administration, as both parties are still at odds with one another, but we can expect to see a dialling down of tensions over the next two years," said Neil Quilliam, a researcher at Chatham House think tank in London.
The Biden administration has also said it wants to reset relations.
The U.S. Justice Department said the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, should be protected from prosecution over the 2018 killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The move has been interpreted by some legal analysts as a concession to the Saudis, and it stands in stark contrast to Biden's previous promise to make him a "pariah" in connection with the killing. The CIA believes Crown Prince Mohammed is behind the assassination, which he denies.
When it comes to production cuts, Brian Katulis, a political expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the negative reaction took the Saudis by surprise and that they underestimated how the decision would be perceived in the United States. He said the Saudis made "many missteps" and had been "perceived as trying to engage in America's own partisan squabbles."
Saudi Arabia is now walking a tightrope, says Chatham House's Quilliam.
On the one hand, they see the U.S. as the best guarantor of their security, given the kingdom's extensive arms sales and military support. However, they also see the U.S. as a weakening power and seek closer ties with Russia and China, key geopolitical rivals of the U.S.
Nevertheless, key shared strategic interests, including containing Iran, mean that both countries have more to gain from maintaining the alliance. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is also well aware, Quilliam said, that the Middle East is no longer a key strategic priority for Washington.
"Neither a Republican nor a Democratic party president will reverse US policy towards the Gulf, and Saudis are cognisant of the fact that their region is no longer a first order priority for the White House – no matter who occupies it," he said.
