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April 26
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The Turkish government wants to allocate at least $13 billion a year, offering early retirement to millions of citizens, according to a key campaign promise.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's plan was announced earlier as he prepares for general elections in 2023, but its full scope and cost are under discussion.

The government now estimates it will cost about 250 billion liras ($13.4 billion) in the first year, a senior official told Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.

The official said the amount is likely to increase in coming years as the number of employees benefiting from the plan is expected to rise to five million.

The government also plans to offer a "relief package" to employers, who will have to pay severance payments to affected workers. Turkey's overall budget for 2023 calls for spending of 4.47 trillion liras.

Erdogan said Wednesday that some 2.3 million employees will receive early retirement regardless of age if they meet the necessary work conditions. These include signing up for social insurance by September 1999 and working the required days.

As Turkey prepares for the election, Erdogan is increasing government spending, including raising the minimum wage by more than 50 percent and providing cheap government-backed loans.

"The early retirement decision has put a permanent burden on the budget among the decisions made in recent years," said Hakan Kara, former chief economist at the Turkish central bank and professor at Bilkent University in Ankara. "This will have a negative impact on the country's risk premium and inflation."

Turkey's annual inflation rate is 17 times the central bank's official target of 5 percent, largely because of the central bank's ultra-soft monetary policy. Under Erdogan's leadership, the bank has cut the cost of borrowing by 500 basis points this year, even as inflation has risen sharply. Officials now expect inflation to be around 65% by the end of the year.

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