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Today it became known that Armenia sent the second batch of humanitarian aid through the Margara bridge on the Armenian-Turkish border to Turkey, where there was a strong earthquake on February 6.

In parallel with this, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan visited Turkey on February 15 and held a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu, stating that they agreed to jointly repair the Ani Bridge and take care of the relevant infrastructure in anticipation of the full opening of the border.

It is normal that Yerevan displays sympathy towards Turkey, given the current situation, human losses and tragedy. Everyone must do so with respect to any country, but Armenia will gain nothing from a geopolitical point of view, political analyst Vladimir Lepekhin told Armenian

Lepekhin called not to pin hopes on the assistance and contacts to somehow improve the Armenian-Turkish relations or change the situation in the region.

The expert is sure that nothing will follow those processes, because Ankara is very pragmatic and rigid in its geopolitical policy.

He explained that Armenia's interests are not incorporated in this line and if they are, then only on Turkey's terms.

"Armenia is not an authority on any issue for Turkey, since the current leadership in Yerevan often bends to Turkey. Before the 44-day war, the Armenian authorities had no principled position on Ankara, despite forecasts of a possible outbreak of war and advice to get ready. Turkey's influence in the region, and hence that of Azerbaijan, will continue to grow. That factor will promote NATO's influence, and there will be attempts to squeeze Russia from South Caucasus," Lepekhin says.

He believes that this vector, which was outlined 2.5 years ago and led to the beginning of the 44-day war, can only change the result of the "special military operation" in Ukraine.

"If Russia emerges from it with dignity and achieves its goals, it will then try to regain its influence in the South Caucasus and prolong the presence of peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and the military base in Gyumri. But if the military campaign fails for Russia and the terms of the peace agreement are dominated by Western conditions, Moscow is unlikely to regain its influence in the South Caucasus. On the contrary, Russia's policy of weakening in the region will continue. In that case there will be a question of how Armenia will become an absolute satellite of Turkey and its allies, at the price of Nagorno-Karabakh and some other territories," Lepekhin said.

The conditions formulated by Azerbaijan is a consistent line, from which Baku will not retreat, and this, according to the political analyst, threatens Armenia with new territorial losses.

"Therefore, it is necessary to show sympathy in the current situation, but there is no sense in flirting with Turkey. It is necessary to demonstrate a principled position. The striving of the Armenian authorities towards multi-vector policy will result in promises from the West. But as Turkey is a part of NATO, the West will not oppose to British interests in the region," the expert stated.

Aram Danielyan

This text available in   Հայերեն and Русский
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