There is a real menace of hostilities’ resumption between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a Moscow-based defense analyst, Novaya Gazeta columnist Pavel Felgenhauer told in the interview with RFE/RL.

“Presently, there is a serious threat of the situation destabilization. But prior to that, neither Baku, nor Yerevan wished the aggravation of the situation. Currently everything has changed. Aliyev administration had set itself a serious task and to achieve it, it can take a risk and renew hostilities. Azerbaijan can do so even if hostilities lead to fallout. By this move it aims at returning Nagorno-Karabakh and prevent Armenia-Turkey Protocols’ ratification,” the analyst said.

According to him, Karabakh conflict cannot be considered frozen today. “The situation went out of the frozen state, and anything can happen,” he stated adding that Azerbaijani armed forces are unable to ensure the victory for Baku. If the Azeris spend their money more functionally, having the level of corruption not as high as in Georgia, the results would probably be obvious. However they overspend, still being unready for a new war," he said emphasizing Armenians will not benefit from attacking Baku just as Azerbaijanis occupying Nagorno-Karabakh.

L.A.