GDP growth of three to four per cent is expected in Armenia this year, depending on the recent economic processes, Armenian Minister of Finance Tigran Davtyan told a press conference on October 6.

The budget message submitted to the RA Parliament a few days ago forecasts 2.7% GDP growth for this year. The Armenian Government must have revised its forecast after the latest statement by IMF Resident Representative Guillermo Tolosa, who forecast 4% GDP growth in Armenia for this year.

However, the forecasts reveal serious flaws in methodology so they cannot serve as signals to business environment.

The state budget was based on the previously forecast 1.2% GDP growth.

The Armenian Government forecasts 4-6 per cent GDP growth for next year. Minister Davtyan said it will allow the country to exceed the economic level of the pre-crisis year 2008. The nominal GDP is expected to reach 3,760bn AMD (over U.S. $10bn), which is much higher than in 2008.