On the basis of commercial banks’ long-term development programs for 2010-2012, the Financial Information Analysis Department, Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), released commercial banks’ forecasts for the USD/AMD exchange rate. According to the forecasts, some USD revaluation against the AMD is expected, which will create favorable conditions for export promotion, enhancing the competitiveness of exported goods and services and reducing imports in the future, which, in turn, will improve the country’s foreign trade balance.

However, a shocking rise in prices is not ruled out. The banks’ forecasts about the USD/AMD exchange rate ranged between 360 AMD/U.S. $1 and 455 AMD/U.S. $1 (the average exchange rate being 394 AMD/U.S. $1). Most of the banks forecasted an exchange rate of 380-400 AMD/U.S. $1. According to some forecasts, AMD stabilization may reduce dollarization level.