Domestic policy

On September 21, Armenia marked the next Independence Day. Eighteen years ago, amid active disintegration processes and the inevitable collapse of the USSR, most Armenian citizens voted for Armenia’s secession from the Soviet Union. This year’s celebrations have been quite modest, bad weather, with constant heavy rains, being a contributory factor. No military parade had initially been planned (the last parade was held three years ago, when the 15th anniversary of Armenia’s Independence was celebrated), which, however, would not have been out of place in the context of the warlike statements regularly made by official Baku. The authorities only held a solemn reception at the RA presidential residence and presented government awards. As regards the chief opposition force led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, it was even denied a hall designed for more than 150 people for a traditional holiday party. As a result, several hundred oppositionists had to gather in the pouring rain in front of the monument to Martiros Saryan, a traditional place for daily “political festivities”. Ter-Petrosyan invited his most ardent supporters to the Central Office of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and made a short congratulatory speech. In outline, Armenia marked the 18th anniversary of its independence amid domestic political confrontation and intense debate over the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes.

Vartan Oskanian, who was RA Foreign Minister under President Robert Kocharyan, has stepped up his activities, which is of interest in the context of not only appraisals of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement process, but also of their domestic political importance. It is common knowledge that Oskanian is Robert Kocharyan’s “right hand.” Most likely he coordinates his actions with Armenia’s second president. The reasonable conclusion is that Oskanian’s tone, which is getting sharper and sharper, is actually attempts to probe into public opinion as to the possibility of Robert Kocharyan’s return to big politics amid the discontent with President Serzh Sargsyan’s foreign policy voiced by some representatives of the ruling elite and of electorate. It should be noted, however, that Oskanian’s statements may produce effect on some high-ranking and junior officials “done out of their share” by Serzh Sargsyan, whereas most people are hardly likely “to give ear” to the ex-official. All his statements on the necessity for a wave of public protest against the Armenian-Turkish Protocols “smash into” the fact of his own active involvement in the suppression of post-election rallies last year, particularly in the tragic events on March 1-2, 2008. Vartan Oskanian must be the unhappiest candidate for calling on the public to rise.

The disfavored oligarch Khachatur Sukiasyan, who resigned from Parliament, went to Germany “for his health.” We have no information on his health problems, but the authorities let him go though he had earlier been released on his own recognizance. It was common knowledge that the opposition oligarch had set up a large business in Germany. The question remains: will Khachatur Sukisyan return to Armenia or the rumors about his bargain with the Armenian authorities, “freedom for abandoning politics”, will prove true? Anyway, he did not attend the Opposition rally on September 18: an hour before he had been summoned to the special investigation group to be interrogated for several hours. Nor did Mr. Sukiasyan hold a press conference announced immediately after he was released. Now we have to wait for further developments and for whether the oligarch will return to Armenia in two or three weeks, as his office claims.

In turn, Hakob Hakobyan, one more supporter of the ANC leader, is once again running for Parliament in the December 6 by-election in election district #8 in Yerevan. Although Hakobyan was amnestied, a court verdict returned on him took force, which meant he was to be unseated. Now, the big businessman, who defected to the Opposition camp during the latest presidential election, decided to “displease” the authorities by “being in their way” to carrying their own candidate. With the election process in the Malatiya-Sebastiya community and an opposition candidate’s participation considered, the election campaign in election district #8 is expected to be a “noisy” one.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) continues its actions of protest against the Armenian-Turkish Protocols. It should be noted that, in contrast to similar actions held by the opposition Miatsum (Unification) movement, the police do not come into conflict with the ARF representatives, who “hold hours-long concerts” in font of the Government and the RA Foreign Office. Although the party claims it has collected tens of thousands of signatures against the ratification of the Protocols, the action does not evoke a wide public response: in the daytime, the highest number of participants in the hunger-strike and sit-in is 70, with no more than 15 “being on duty” at night. The founder of the Heritage Party Raffi Hovhannisyan and the leader of the New Times Party Aram Karapetyan gave “certain impetus” to the ARF’s actions of protest by joining the signature-gathering campaign. However, as has been noted before, with the ANC, the only force capable of organizing mass actions of protest, refusing to hold rallies now, all the other actions of protest are like a voice in the wilderness.

The Heritage Party advanced an initiative, which, however, is most unlikely to “win the addressee’s favor.” The party proposed that Chairman of the RA Constitutional Court (CC) Gagik Harutyunyan organize a hearing of the constitutionality of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols. However, since the CC scarcely ever makes any decisions against the authorities’ will, the CC Chairman can hardly be expected to give a favorable response to the party’s initiative.

Vartan Oskanian, Armenia’s foreign minister under President Robert Kocharyan, has harshly criticized the Armenian-Turkish Protocols, stating their signing is unacceptable. Seeking to wreck the Armenian authorities’ efforts to normalize the Armenian-Turkish relations, the former top-ranking official went as far as to comparing them to Armenia’s relations with other countries, particularly with Georgia. Oskanian pointed out it was not until recent times that the demarcation of the Armenian-Georgian border got under way, and drew attention to Armenia’s good relations with its northern neighbor. The former Armenian foreign minister referred to the experience of many European countries having territorial problems along with normal trade and economic relations. He thus tried to argue for the unacceptability of the point on the inviolability of frontiers incorporated in the initialed Armenian-Turkish Protocols. Without dwelling of the argument over the equity of the statements, we cannot but point out a rather “peculiar” starting point of Vartan Oskanian. What is another possible designation of an attempt to compare such a serious issue as Armenian-Turkish relations to Armenia’s cooperation with other countries – an attempt made by an experienced politician? If we remember the fact that most school textbooks in Turkey still stir up hatred for the Armenians, while the Georgian Public Television calls on Armenians not let their children lose the opportunity to attend Armenian schools, Oskanian’s comparison is really “great.” The only thing that remains is to find out the aim of the statements.

Top-ranking Turkish officials have been active this week as well. They held numerous meetings during the 64th General Assembly of the United Nations in New York and discussed the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davudoglu have lately made statements in a slightly difference vein: they have not mentioned the need for “vacating the occupied territories” of Azerbaijan before the Armenian-Turkish border is reopened. Talking to journalists, Minister Davudoglu stated that Turkey continues its policy of cooperation and zero problems toward its neighbors. As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Minister did not single it out from the entire context of the stabilization in the South Caucasus. Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan restrained his ardor as well: although embellished by Azeri mass media, his statements only contain hope for intensified efforts in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, without any mention of Azerbaijan’s territories “occupied” by Armenia. One can easily notice that the Turkish leaders’ “whereabouts” often account for changes in their rhetoric: they made rather strongly-worded statements a few days before leaving for New York. However, as soon as they set their feet on the soil of one of the principal mediators in the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement, they became much more careful about words. This must be another manifestation of Turkey’s cunning diplomacy: despite the obvious fact that the initialed Protocols can by no mean be amended before they are finally signed, Turkey is trying to get new concessions from Armenia.

Economy and social life

At its sitting the Armenian Government approved the order of granting economic (tax, customs, etc..) benefits under a framework agreement between Armenia and the Committee of European Communities. The benefits include exemption from VAT, exemption of imported products from customs duties, exemption of nonresident organizations from profit taxes, etc.. The Government also approved the results of contests held on the WB-allocated funds under an irrigation system renovation program.

We would remind you that the Armenian Government and the World Bank signed a credit agreement in Yerevan on July 31. Under the program, irrigation canals in Talin and Armavir are to be renovated.

At its sitting the RA State Commission for Economic Competition discussed its 2010 program of action. Commission Chairman Ashot Shahnazaryan reported that the Commission would take tougher measures against economic entities abusing heir market positions and simplify the methods of appraising economic entities’ activities.

Head of the RA Supervisory Chamber Ishkhan Zakaryan has shown an unexpected tendency in his behavior. Over the past year each of his news conferences was marked by “sensational exposures” of economic entities’ financial activities, whereas he looked good-natured the last time. He said that relevant measures were taken immediately after the Supervisory Chamber revealed financial violations in government agencies in 2007-2008. Zakaryan made that statement while presenting the financial reports of the RA Civil Aviation Department, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Sport and Youth Affairs and the Social Investment Fund. The only question remains: what is the nature of the Supervisory Chamber’s activities: actual struggle against corruption, which made officials honest workers, intimidation or the relevant materials may unexpectedly “come to light” in the future.

Transparency International released a new report, which points out an extremely high corruption level in Armenia. According to the report, corruption has affected all the spheres of the country’s life. Corruption takes such forms as mass bribery, political and social pressure, which seriously impedes Armenia’s economic progress. The part dealing with Armenia specifically mentions the “misfortunes” that befell the Royal Armenia Company and the Gala TV channel.

Amid the global crisis, “out of season”, the European Union (EU) set 5-year additional duties, up to 30%, for aluminum foil from China, Brazil and Armenia, to assist European producers, primarily the Polish Grupa Kety SA, in competing with the cheap import. The Chinese, Brazilian and Armenian producers exported their products to 27 European countries at below-cost prices thereby practicing dumping. As a result, the Bloomberg agency reported, such companies as Novelis (Great Britain), Symetal Aluminium Foil Industry SA (Greece) and Alcomet (Bulgaria) sustained losses. The EU levied a duty of 17.6% on the products of Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio and of any other Brazilian companies, 13.4% on the products of ARMENAL (subsidiary of RUSAL, Russia), and 30% on any foil exports from China. The EU accepted the Brazilian companies’ offer to raise prices in exchange for exemption from antidumping duties, whereas it declined a similar offer made by ARMENAL.

The CE Ministers’ Council released a report on the national minorities’ languages in Armenia. The report is not free from bias. The European officials pointed out the complete lack of TV or radio broadcasts in national minorities’ languages. However, for apparently political reasons, they did not list the Russian language, which is not only the mother tongue one of the national minorities, but also the language spoken by many thousands of Armenians. The Council demanded that the Armenian authorities ensure broadcasting in the Assyrian, Kurdish and Yezid languages, whereas they did not say a single word about the Russian language taken off the air. We hope that the Armenian authorities will give ear to the European officials’ demands and come to realize the necessity for Russian-language broadcasts on the Government-financed TV channel – so as not to “be unfair” to one of the largest national communities, to say nothing of tens of thousands Russian-speaking Armenians. There is no better way of reducing overseas media’s influence on them, is there?