By Ivan Gharibyan

A few days after the Armenian-Turkish Protocols were finally signed, official Baku mounted an all-out offensive – they must have realized the incompatibility of the ongoing processes with the reference points of their own policy launched many years ago.

After a few days of silence, late this week, the Azerbaijani authorities decided to go on an offensive and show the Turkish leaders all their resentment over the irreversible Armenia-Turkey normalization process. Of course, for the time being, Turkey’s willingness to stop setting preconditions in this process under international pressure is out of the question, but the processing is running this very course now: whatever “trademark” promises may be made by official Ankara, they are not yet indicative of any immediate linkage between the Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes. The Armenian and Turkish Parliaments are progressing to successful ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, which are most likely to be ratified and come into force before the end of October. This, in turn, means reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border by the end of this year.

After being convinced that the principal geopolitical players and international mediator got “sick and tired” of dealing with “uncompromising” Azerbaijan, which, in contrast to Armenia, will not make any concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh, President Ilham Aliyev decided to take a number of desperate steps hoping for a change in developments. The other day, the Azeri leader stated Azerbaijan’s intention to refuse to supply gas to Turkey at a much-lower-than-market price. He designated this policy as “squandering that is going too far.”

One more piece of evidence of an apparent change in the “little brother’s” attitude to its “big brother” is the Azerbaijani authorities’ decision, which is by no means in conformity with the “centuries-old” firm friendship between the two nations. “The Shahid lane” located at highest spot of present-day Baku — the burial place of the participants in the Armenian pogroms in January 1990, after Soviet troops entered the city – is the “pride” of the city. The Armenian and Turkish national flags alternated along the lane in symbol of firm friendship. Now, however, after a number of top-ranking officials visited the lane, the flags have been taken off.

Further developments are difficult to forecast. President Aliyev is unlikely to show such political shortsightedness as to aggravate relations with Turkey, which, is any case, is Azerbaijan most loyal and closest ally. It must be a “tooth show” to be followed by a forced dialogue with Ankara to find a way out of the situation. There is only one way out. None of the international mediators conceal their desire for a final settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict soon after the Armenian-Turkish relations have been normalized. However, since the Armenian authorities clearly explained major — and most painful — concessions the Armenian side can afford, it is Baku’s turn now, and Turkey has to explain to Azerbaijan the inevitability of similar painful concessions, which are of vital necessity for the negotiating process.