Domestic policy

This week has been marked by an even sharper conflict within the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) Hnchakyan, which forms part of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan. This, however, is “a much more” global conflict than the ones that are “integral part” of Armenia’s domestic political life. The point is that most of the SDP members are foreign citizens. This traditional national party has always had a chapter network in Armenian communities throughout the world, whereas it has never played a significant role in Armenia’s political life. After joining the radical opposition forces, which was initiated by Head of the SDP Armenian chapter Lyudmila Sargsyan, the party acquired some influence. No serious tension between the Armenian and oversees chapters, including the Central Office, has so far been noticed. After the SDP’s congress, as well as on the threshold of the republican congress, a split has opened up within the party, which shows a growing tendency. Substantial disagreements arose over the three traditional national parties’ cooperation in protesting against the Armenian-Turkish protocols. After the recent meeting between the leaders of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), Ramkavar-Azatakan Party (RAP) and SDP, the split showed itself “in full measure.” The point is that the ARF, which has for many years formed part of various ruling coalitions, was harshly critical of the Armenian-Turkish protocols without, however, demanding the resignation of RA President Serzh Sargsyan, who initiated “football diplomacy.” Moreover, the ARF actually rules out the possibility of cooperation with the principal opposition force, ANC, with the SDP being an active ANC member. The result is a situation when the SDP chapter in Armenia does not see itself in the same political camp with the ARF. The party leaders abroad, however, took steps toward cooperation with the other national parties, with many having serious doubts about their being really opposition political forces. The affair may come to a head at the congress of the SDP Armenia, which will show the “stronger side.” At present, however, the SDP office in Yerevan is reporting contradictory information: now we receive reports that Vardan Khachatryan, which recently joined the party, has been expelled, now we receive the opposite reports. As regards the opposition mass media, they appraised the authorities’ attempts to form a constructive opposition to “their taste”, which Opposition has actually been formed by three national parties. In this case, the leaders of the SDP Armenia are viewed as the only obstacle due to their radical opposition.

Some events related to the by-elections to the RA Parliament are worthy of note. The by-elections in Election District #10 are scheduled for January 10, 2010. Suren Surenyants, the Political Council member, Republic Party, obeyed the leaders and did not apply for registration. After the political scientist Hamayak Hovhannisyan stated his intention to withdraw in favor Nikol Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper, who is on trial now, it became obvious that the Opposition proved able to settle some disagreements and combine efforts to support the opposition candidate at the by-election. Now Nikol Pashinyan’s participation in the election as an opposition candidate depends exclusively on the course of his trial: Nikol Pashinyan can run for Parliament if no court verdict is returned on him before the elections day. As regards the participation of the ARF member Rafael Aivazyan, the situation is clear now. After his “identity” as an ARF member was found out, Rafael Aivazyan withdrew himself. Thus, we can state that the ARF, which is trying to show itself as an opposition party, decided to escape accusations of conspiracy with the authorities by “settling matters” with its “disobedient” member.

RA Ombudsman Armen Harutyunyan stated that he prepares to publish a report on the right to fair trials by the end of this year. The document is of special interest, as it will embrace trials of the opposition members arrested during last year’s post-election processes. Let us see whether the Armenian Ombudsman will come under criticism by both the authorities and the Opposition. After he appraised the objectivity of the ad hoc commission set up to investigate the events on March 1, 2008, it was only the Opposition that voiced criticism.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

Before the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ visit to the region on November 5, Peter Semneby, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, made rather strange statements. The high-ranking European official’s aims remained unclear, but not the consequences of his statements. Mr. Semneby’s statement that the settlement of the most complicated problem — the status of Nagorno-Karabakh — was to be postponed for an uncertain period, evoked official Yerevan’s violent reaction, the more so because the recent period has shown a marked tendency to deeper differences between the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. In this context the aim of announcing the settlement terms initially rejected by the Armenian side just on the threshold of the OSCE MG Co-Chairs’ visit to the region thereby exacerbating situation remains unclear. The Armenian authorities encounter serious difficulties in convincing the public of the necessity for painful concessions. All of a sudden, a high-ranking European official makes a statement, which actually corroborates the Armenian Opposition’s claims on an unfavorable course of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The only thing that remains is to guess at the reasons for Mr. Semneby’s actions. It is obvious, however, that they certainly produced a negative effect on the Co-Chairs’ visit to the region. As to the visit results, they will be clear later, after information on what was really discussed is available.

RA President Serzh Sargsyan made an important statement on the international community’s biased assessments of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. “Insufficient awareness of the Artsakh problem, Azerbaijan’s impermissible speculation on religious solidarity result in wrong decisions by the Organization of Islamic Conference,” the Armenian leader stated at his meeting with the Emir of Kuwait.

The ruling coalition has at last begun thinking of coordinating the work to oppose the anti-Armenian propaganda launched by Azerbaijan. Naira Zohrabyan, the Parliament member of the Prosperous Armenia Party, advanced a concrete proposal. “Azerbaijan is spending huge funds on anti-Armenian propaganda, and we are late with an adequate response,” she said. The representative of the ruling coalition, who is also a member of the Armenian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and has witnessed manifestations of Azerbaijan’s fierce anti-Armenian campaign, proposed forming a coordinating body to “give a prompt and adequate response to the authorities of the neighboring state.”

As the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols by the Armenian and Turkish Parliaments is being delayed, Turkish top-ranking officials never miss a chance to link the Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes. “No doubt, Azerbaijan’s occupied territories belong to Azerbaijan, and none of Armenia’s objections can be discussed. In this context, I believe that the work is being carried out to immediately return the occupied territories, and many issues will be settled much easier. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are satisfied with the OSCE Minsk Group’s activities over the last year,” stated Turkish President Abdullah Gul. In fact, the Turkish leader acted against his principal ally, the USA. It is time to remember U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who repeatedly stated that the Armenian-Turkish relations must be normalized without any preconditions.

Incidentally, the possibility of early parliamentary elections has been much talked about in Turkey. Premier Recep Erdogan tried to put an end to them, stressing that the elections would be held according to the law. The talks were caused by a short conversation between the Turkish Premier and the leader of the Turkish Opposition Deniz Baykal. During the celebrations on the occasion of the Day of Turkish Republic, the two had a short dialogue and did not rule out a possibility of elections. That dialogue caused Turkish mass media to publish opinions on highly probable early elections. Premier Erdogan stated later that he would inform the Turkish people, not the Opposition leader, of the necessity for early elections.

Economy and social life

The central event of Armenia’s economic life this week has been the parliament hearing of the 2010 draft budget. Ministers submitted the draft budget to the standing committees of the RA Parliament. With the alignment of forces in Parliament considered, the hearing is not of special interest: following the traditions of modern-day political culture, the Parliament members representing the ruling majority did not intend to propose any amendments that would “run counter” to the Government-budgeted expenditures. The discussions of the draft budget by the parliamentary commissions played an important role in informing the public of the problems to face Armenia next year. It is now clear that the Armenian citizens will have “to say goodbye” not only to the insignificant economic growth, but also to officials’ “tales” about “two-digit numbers percentage wise.” A serious reduction of financing of all the fields has been announced. Specifically, the financing of the education system will be reduced by 25%, of the armed forces by 20% and of the health system by 17%.

Another piece of “good news” was announced by Chairman of the Public Services Regulatory Commission Robert Nazaryan: not only gas, but also electric energy prices will rise next April. The Armenian population, which has not yet got over the price rise this April, will have to “tighten the belt.” Armenia’s strategic ally, Russia, will raise the gas price from U.S. $154 up to U.S. $180 for 1,000 cubic meters. What about the Armenian population? Let them have a nice time!

The France Telecom Company (Orange brand) officially launched its activities on the Armenian market on November 5. Armenia is the 31st country the company is working in. At a ceremony on this occasion, the company managers pointed out that their main aim is to render affordable mobile services. The Orange network has covered 85% of Armenia’s territory, which makes 3G and 3G+ services available in almost any part of Armenia. Orange Vice-President Olaf Swantee said the company will render high-quality Internet communication services. The principal fiber-optic cable will run from Armenia to Europe through Iran. Orange purchased the cable from the GNC-Alfa company. The company managers reported that Orange roaming services will be affordable to clients as well. Special prices are in effect in the other countries where Orange is working. A total of 70,000 people in Armenia wished to subscribe to the company’s services by the time it launched activities, which, according to the managers, is “quite a good figure.”