The United States has not been a net exporter of oil and oil products since World War II. Next year, it will become a net exporter, with oil and petroleum product exports already reaching record levels of 3.4 million bpd and 3 million bpd, respectively.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, citing official data from the Energy Department, crude oil imports are declining, falling to 1.1 million bpd in November. That's down from about 7 million barrels per day of crude imports five years ago.

To be fair, the balance of exports and imports this year has been significantly affected by a massive 180 million barrels of crude from the strategic oil reserves that the Biden administration used to combat rising retail fuel prices, Oilprice.com writes.

The expectation that the U.S. will become a net oil exporter is based on one big assumption: a more rapid build-up of shale oil production.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred new energy demand in the U.S. and should lead to oil exports exceeding imports late next year if shale production accelerates, said Vortexa market analyst.

If shale production doesn't accelerate, the U.S. would have to cut demand to become a net exporter. However, this is highly unlikely. In fact, oil demand from the world's largest consumer is projected to rise next year, albeit by a modest 0.7 percent, to 20.51 million bpd.

U.S. oil production is projected to reach a record 12.34 million bpd next year, but, again, this is based on the assumption that shale oil production growth will accelerate. At this point, most drillers don't seem to want to return to their previous growth regime at any cost.

Instead, they are taking a more cautious approach and prioritizing returning cash to shareholders after years of burning it to accelerate growth. The Biden administration's energy policies have also had a discouraging effect on the oil industry because of its focus on divesting from fossil fuels.