Behind the scenes, the Armenian authorities are discussing the possibility of recognizing Azerbaijani sovereignty over Artsakh in exchange for Azerbaijan's renunciation of claims on Syunik. The West is also in favor of the package solution. Arman Grigoryan, political analyst and professor at American Lehigh University, was a guest of Armenian News-NEWS.am.
"But the Russian variant is phased in its essence. According to this variant, today it is impossible to solve the issue of Artsakh's status which stems from the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan, so the issue should be postponed until after the signing of a peace treaty. It suits Armenia better than a package solution," the expert said.
He explained that the difference between these approaches also lies in the choice of a mediator.
"The choice of the package option implies the process of Russia's withdrawal from the region, which may pose a threat of tough opposition from Moscow. But will it protect Armenia from the likely aggression of Azerbaijan and Turkey?" the political scientist asked a rhetorical question.
He reminded that last year Azerbaijan's military expenditures increased by 40%, the balance of forces with Armenia was even more torn not in favor of Yerevan.
"In this case, everything depends on the position of Russia, which is interested in preserving the Armenian Artsakh, although Moscow cannot recognize Artsakh's independence because it will lead to a clash with Turkey," Grigoryan noted.
At the same time, the expert expressed his concern over references to Alma-Ata Declaration and statements of Armenian authorities about their readiness to protect only 29800 square kilometers.