The Stratfor analytical center reflected on the installation of an illegal checkpoint by Azerbaijan at the Lachin corridor.

“Azerbaijan's state border service on April 23 established a border checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia with the Armenian-populated territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Eurasianet reported the next day,” Stratfor wrote in a situation report.

It added that many Western governments and politicians condemned the move and called for an end to support for Azerbaijan.

The road has been closed since December 2022, but the creation of the checkpoint shows Baku's clear intention to strictly regulate all future entries and exits from Nagorno-Karabakh. Such a development of events could undermine the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire agreement, as the Lachin road was supposed to be under the control of Russian peacekeepers, and Baku had agreed to "guarantee" traffic in both directions along it.

As per Stratfor, the lack of a significant response from the West regarding this checkpoint may prompt Baku to continue its violent violations of the ceasefire.

In addition, this Azerbaijani checkpoint is located next to a base of the Russian peacekeepers, who are supposed to keep the road open, and this further undermines the confidence of Russia and its peacekeeping troops in the observance of the 2020 ceasefire agreement.

Colonel General Aleksandr Lentsov on Tuesday became the new commander of the Russian peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh, replacing Major General Andrey Volkov, who held this position since January 2022.

On February 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had announced during his visit to Baku that "no checkpoint is planned to be established there [i.e., in the Lachin corridor],” Stratfor recalled.