The more clarifications mediators make to the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, the sharper are contradictions between the sides. European expert on security issues Simon Manukyan supposes that breakdown of talks on the current stage is impossible, as Armenia and Azerbaijan have commitments to the international community.

“The ticking off is on. Realizing the impossibility of quitting the negotiations and resuming a war, Azerbaijan created and tries to use particular lever of pressure on Armenia and mediators, that is use of force. However Armenian side displays unruffled composure to this tactics, acknowledging that Azerbaijan will not take risk to break out war without Turkey’s military support. Azerbaijan will have to back words by deeds and attempt the acts of sabotage in the front line. It is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will try to destabilize the situation in the local areas and initiate a battle march,” the expert said.

Manukyan considers that Aliyev’s militaristic statements will have effect until a certain time."In the course of declaration singing in Moscow and negotiations over Madrid document, Aliyev’s statements will not be taken seriously to a certain point. Making constructive statements while meeting with the opponent on the one hand and aggressive calls from Baku on the other – it is ridiculous and meanwhile a dangerous tactical combination. Aliyev is well aware of that, but keeps narrowing the background for his maneuvers. He has to choose whether to carry out his threats partially or to sign the second significant document with Sargsyan. Both are impossible. Another option is to simulate contradictions between Azerbaijani political and military elite. Then Azerbaijani President will put a brave face on a sorry business. He will simultaneously try to smile and tell the mediators about peaceful conflict settlement and complain that militaries are impatient to take revanche and rush to fight. In this case Armenian side should be ready to suppress provocations in the front line, and play Karabakh card in the diplomatic arena, giving Aliyev doubtful pleasure to see Karabakh’s President smile."