A failure of the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation process is imminent as never before now, the ex-speaker of the RA Parliament, MP Tigran Torosyan told reporters on February 15.

Turkey has found itself in a critical situation, and ratifying the Armenian-Turkish protocols is a most complicated task for Ankara. “This is the result of Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan’s wrong political calculations. After the Madrid Principles were publicized, he thought the sides were close to signing the document. So he hurried to make the Armenian-Turkish normalization process conditional on the return of the security zone to show Azerbaijan Ankara’s interest in this matter. However, the Madrid Principles, which provide for the return of the territories under the Armenian side’s control, were not signed, and Erdogan is no hostage to his own statement – he cannot go back on his word, as this time Turkey has decided to account for its refusal to ratify the protocols by the RA Constitutional Court’s verdict,” Torosyan said.

He stressed that Armenia’s situation is far from being an enviable one as well. Armenia will only lose if the protocols are ratified, and even the Armenian MPs that are supposed to vote for the documents under pressure are well aware of this.

“The points on mutual recognition of borders and on a subcommittee of historians incorporated in the protocols have the implication talked about in Turkey. Therefore the ratification of the protocols will cause damage to Armenia,” Torosyan said. “I am sure that the ratification of the protocols will cause irreparable damage to the process of international recognition of Armenian Genocide,” added Torosyan. Armenian will get nothing in exchange for its numerous concessions, he said. “Even the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border will not be of any special benefit. Armenia and Turkey maintain trade contacts through Georgia, do they not?” said Torosyan.

He pointed out that two factors might force Turkey into ratifying the protocols: the possibility of the U.S. Congressional discussions of a resolution on the Armenian Genocide, and U.S. President Barack Obama annual address on the occasion of the 95th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. “To prevent undesirable developments, Turkey might ratify the protocols. That is the reason why many experts believe April 24 to be the deadline for the ratification,” Torosyan said. He stressed that Armenia will benefit if the Armenian-Turkish protocols fail. “If it happens, I hope the Armenian authorities will be more reasonable in initiating similar processes in the future,” Torosyan said.

T.P.