The South Caucasus is getting ready for war, the expert in Turkic studies Artak Shakaryan told reporters on August 18, commenting on an Armenian-Turkish agreement on strategic cooperation recently signed in Baku. According to him, the U.S. is leaving the Near East, with Russia and Turkey coming into play: Russia is establishing a firmer foothold in Armenia, while Turkey is doing the same in Azerbaijan. “We should take into account the fact that when under Turkey’s control Azerbaijan is easier controlled,” Shakaryan said.

As regards possible resumption of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, he pointed out that it will not follow the Russian-Georgian scenario.

“Azerbaijan is well aware that if, besides Artsakh, it attacks even Armenia, retaliatory actions will be more decisive,” he said. Shakaryan does not see any threat of new war. However, with President Aliev’s playing double games and entertaining hopes for victory in case of lightning war, more frequent ceasefire violations may be registered.

Commenting on Turkey’s statement on Nagorno-Karabakh, the expert pointed out that, in speaking of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, Ankara means only the regions bordering Nagorno-Karabakh. As regards Nagorno-Karabakh’s status Turkey has not yet announced its official position. This means Turkey has changed its position. Time will show if the changes are temporary or not, the expert said.