The Armenian-Russian agreement on longer-term Russian military presence in Armenia poses a threat to the regional countries, first of all to Turkey and Azerbaijan, said Sinan Oğan, Head of the Turkish Center for International Relations & Strategic Analysis (TÜRKSAM).

In this context, he pointed out the necessity for a thorough analysis of all the processes and for a tactic that would reduced all the risks of the Russian military base’s presence in Armenia. By signing the agreement Moscow must have sent out a signal to the conflicting parties that it would not allow hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. Under the circumstances, the task of Baku and Ankara is to win Moscow over or, if they fail, at least to persuade it into neutrality. “Azerbaijan is a full-fledged and strong state. It is not Georgia, which can be intimidated with military force. Besides, all those planning to do it must not forget the Turkish factor. Those who even think of causing any damage to Azerbaijan will face Turkey. Unlike the USA, which promised ‘virtual’ assistance to Georgia in August 2008, but never supported it, Turkey will keep its promises,” he said. On the other hand, the expert is critical of the idea of deploying a Turkish military base in Nakhichevan. “Moscow will not perceive the deployment of Turkish troops in Nakhichevan, which will cause a crisis in both Russia-Turkey and Azerbaijan-Russia relations. So it is too early to speak of it. Our main task now is to change the situation in our favor with composure and presence of mind instead of exacerbating the situation in the region, which is strained as it is,” Oğan said.

He does not rule out the deployment of Turkish peacemakers in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone in the future. Since all the three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs support Armenia, each in his own way, Azerbaijan can demand the deployment of Turkish peacemakers in the future, after an agreement settling the Nagorno-Karabakh has been signed, the expert said.