Political geography of the South Caucasus will change in the near future, putting national governments in a difficult position and jeopardizing regional security, said Nikolay Zlobin, director of the Russia and Eurasia Project at the World Security Institute, speaking at the “Security Problems and Information Cooperation in the South Caucasus” conference in Yerevan.

The expert stressed that South Caucasus cannot be called a region, as it has not establish itself as a region at all. “Today, the states, their policies and economy are estranged and it does not provide an opportunity to consider the South Caucasus a region,” Zlobin said.

He deems that global security system has been destabilized. According to him, there is no military security system as such, as not a single army of any country is capable of winning any war. System of national security has been destabilized, as it faces social, economic, demographic and cultural challenges, he added. Thus, the global security system should be revalued.

Nikolay Zlobin also forecasted decline of national economies in the nearest future, as it happened with national mass media that in fact has disappeared. In this context, national governments will be weakened as well. “Presently, any president of a state has less influence on economy than head of a certain financial organization,” he noted, adding that influential international organizations that are to stabilize global processes have lost the levers of influence. The expert stated that such authoritative organizations as the UN, OSCE, G-20 have less influence on the regional and global processes than different informal organizations. All this, Zlobin believes, will negatively affect the system of the global security and lead to a chaos and creation of multipolar world.

In future the countries will compete for a creation of the most attractive model of a state- building. The country, finding the most attractive model, regardless of its economic, military and political potential, will assume the leading role.