By Ivan Gharibyan

Armenia has shown a calm reaction to the reports on the initialing of protocols on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Of course, we do not mean the first emotional reaction, but the opinions voiced by the key political forces, which, to a certain extent, allows us to forecast the development of what is known as domestic political consultations in Armenia during the following six weeks (the initialed documents fix this period for both Armenia and Turkey).

The most significant factor is the positions on the issue taken by the authorities and by the key opposition political force, the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, which are very much alike. Evidence thereof is the statement made by the ANC yesterday. Although the ANC regards the formation of an intergovernmental subcommittee of historians to study the 1915 events as inadmissible, and indicates the weak points of other provisions, it generally welcomes the initialed documents.

“The protocols on establishing diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey are essential progress,” says the ANC’s statement on the present state of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. So the ratification of protocols becomes inevitable, as the nascent consensus between the authorities and the only opposition force able to organize mass actions of protest does not provide any reasons for any problems in the process. At this point, one should, of course, pay attention to a contradiction: during his recent visit to Ijevan, the Opposition leader Ter-Petrosyan accused the Armenian authorities of renouncing the claims to the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and “selling Nagorno-Karabakh soon.” However, as Armenia’s President, Ter-Petrosyan was for normalizing relations with Turkey without any preconditions, and was repeatedly accused of carrying out “pro-Turkish propaganda.” We do not rule out that at the September 18 rally Ter-Petrosyan will make even stronger worded statements. However, the Opposition is obviously not going to raise a wave of protest unless any new details of the Armenian authorities’ foreign policy activities are made known soon.

As was expected, the nationalist parties, which have commitments to their Diasporan networks abroad, were critical of the document. The most influential of them, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), which has been involved in power since February 1998, finally, by the end of this April, had got confused and got out of the habit of making clear statement thereby marring its reputation. Now the new opposition force, ARF, is unlikely to be able to raise its loud voice of protest against the current developments. A similar forecast can be made for the national-liberal movement Heritage, which is inexperienced in organizing public actions. As regards the possible behind-the-scenes activities concerning the ex-president Robert Kocharyan’s probable return to politics, it is a low probability in the context of the consent between the geopolitical players seeking the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, to say nothing of the extremely negative attitude to him on the part of the majority of Armenia’s population, which even worsened after the tragic events on March 1, 2008.

Summing up, we would like to note that unexpected developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process are the last possibility of torpedoing the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. However, it is yet too early to speak of it.