By Ivan Gharibyan

After the Armenian-Turkish protocols were finally signed on October 10, Azerbaijan’s international isolation was made obvious – that country hoped for the ceremony to fail until the last moment. However, Baku’s howl about eternal friendship with “the big brother” has recently even more convincingly demonstrated the Azerbaijani authorities’ futile attempts to prevent any serious changes in the region due to the geopolitical factor.

The recent months have clearer demonstrated the fact that Russia has put up with an inevitable change of the status quo in the South Caucasus and is now trying to make the best use of the nascent close cooperation with Turkey in the oil and gas sector. It is an accord on the Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes between Russia and the United States that caused the key geopolitical players to seek a radical change of the situation in the region within a short space of time – enacting a scenario devised beforehand.

The scenario provides an agreement on the fundamental principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process within the next few months. The Azerbaijani authorities are unwearyingly convincing their own people of the impossibility of Armenia-Turkey normalization without Armenia’s withdrawal from the “occupied” territories. Now that, under the watchful eye of high-ranking officials of world powers, the protocols are signed, unrealistic demands for unilateral concessions by the Armenian side can still be heard. The process, however, is developing toward an inevitably peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the basis of mutual and painful concessions.

The Armenian authorities have repeatedly hinted they are ready for that. Specific concessions incorporated in what is known as the Madrid Principles (step-by-step return of the regions forming a security zone round about Nagorno-Karabakh) have been clearly indicated. What is Azerbaijan’s reciprocal concession remained unclear to everyone. This factor, which torpedoes the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, forced the great powers to show Azerbaijan its place in the region and in global politics. Although Turkish officials keep on urging the mediators to intensify the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, they certainly realize that it is the “obstinate little brother” that is holding everything back by resisting the truth: there is no regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, while the security zone can be returned.

The show with the Turkish FM’s trying to mention Nagorno-Karabakh in a final statement on the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols ended in both sides’ refusal to make any statements. The “little brother” was shown efforts to somehow link the protocols with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The efforts, however, proved to be a mere formality – with a happy face, Ahmet Davutoglu signed the documents. In his turn, Azerbaijani President has to think of the ways out of international isolation, with all the geopolitical players, including “dear” Turkey, waiting for specific concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh.