“As it was put to me by a former American envoy that was trying to mediate to solve the thorny Nagorno-Karabakh issue, &‘it is difficult to expect the Karabakh Armenians to be good citizens of Azerbaijan,’ the article by political analyst Barcin Yinanc published in Turkish Hurriyet daily reads.

NEWS.am posts the full text of the article:

”I do not think that the Turkish bureaucracy thinks differently. However hard it may be for the Azerbaijanis to grasp this fact, the reality is that Karabakh is not in the international agenda and there is a feeling of accepting the situation in the ground.

Actually Azerbaijan itself might be approaching to that point. The rhetoric of the Azeri leadership that time is on their side and that Karabakh will be taken back through military means if necessary has stopped after the war between Russia and Georgia last year. Baku has seen that while due to petrodollars the Azerbaijani army got stronger than Armenian army, a war with Armenia might fire back since Russia might intervene for the sake of its last remaining ally in the region. And as a natural rival of Azerbaijan on the energy world, Moscow would have more reasons to intervene in favor of Yerevan than the need for show solidarity with its ally.

Azerbaijani leadership is most probably close to the point of accepting that it will not be possible to have Karabakh under the total sovereignty of Azerbaijan. In fact the formula international mediators were working was called at one stage “independence minus,” meaning that Karabakh will have the highest level of autonomy, but won't have full independence.

As the likelihood of the Azerbaijani people to topple the government on the grounds of a “sell out on Karabakh,” is very dim, the matters lay totally in the hands of the Azerbaijani leadership.

Azerbaijan relies heavily on Turkey for a fair solution to the problem. It will be much more confident on looking for a breakthrough if it felt supported by Turkey.

Yet there is an undeniable loss of confidence on the part of Baku towards the present government. And let's face it, the ruling Justice and Government Party, or AKP, is not head over hills for Azerbaijan. As a matter of fact the AKP government is not fond of any Turkic republics of Central Asia. It is not a secret that AKP leadership feels more at home in the Islamic states of the Arab worlds than the secular Turkic republic which might even be considered by AKP affiliates even as atheists.

I certainly would not want it to happen, yet as the name itself suggest let's dream of a utopist scenario in which the army had intervenes and the AKP leaders find themselves oblige to leave the country to exile. They would most probably end up in Cidde or Quala Lumpur rather than Baku or Astana.

In short, there is a mutual dislike, leading to a distrust which makes coordination on the Karabakh issue even more difficult.

The AKP government has taken a bold step to pave the way to normalize relations with Armenia. Yet it can not continue the normalization process at the expense of relations with Baku. Nagorno-Karabakh might not carry a strategic value for Turkey. Yet Azeri oil and gas have strategic importance for Turkey. Azerbaijan is critical for Turkey’s energy policies.

If the government is decided to go ahead with the reconciliation process with Armenia but can not afford to lose Azerbaijan, then it should seek ways to build confidence. President Abdullah Gul or Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan should not bother going to Baku. As I stated earlier, whatever they say does not have a positive impact.

What needs to be done is to send prominent Turkish figures who are known to be respected in Azerbaijan. Former President Suleyman Demirel, or former Parliament Speaker Hikmet Cetin, who are known to be influential in Azerbaijan could be sent to Baku as envoys.

This way, the confidence of the Azerbaijanis could be reestablished, enabling them to approach the reconciliation process with Armenia with less suspicion. This can also encourage the Azerbaijani leadership to be more forthcoming for a breakthrough in Karabakh and thus having the two process, Armenian-Turkish, Armenian-Azerbaijani, reconciliation to affect each other positively."