Unlike the Armenian-Turkish relations, the U.S. administration does not “encourage” haste in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, the expert Richard Giragosian said at a seminar.

Any new agreements on Nagorno-Karabakh are most unlikely to be reached at the Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Athens, Greece, on December 1-2. “The sides are likely to try to finalize the previously reached agreements,” Giragosian said. He pointed out that, despite the “great wish” of Turkey, which has been most active in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, the sides have hardly any reasons for haste. “Despite Turkey’s tremendous efforts, the Nagorno-Karabakh problem was not incorporated in the Armenian-Turkish protocols. Secondly, the states represented by the OSCE Minsk Group, particularly the USA, are well aware of the fact that haste will not produce any positive result,” the expert said.

According to Giragosian, the OSCE Minsk Group is the best format for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It, however, has a serious defect: the principal party to the conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh, is not represented in it. “From Island to Palestine, conflicting parties are involved in negotiations, but the Minks Group has a serious defect, which must be corrected,” Giragosian said. He pointed out that the newly appointed OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs improved its quality. By empowering Robert Bradtke to act only as OSCE Minsk Group co-Chair, the United States shows it is attaching high importance to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The former U.S. co-chairman Matthew Bryza was also U.S. Department of State’s executive for the South Caucasus.

Giragosian believes the conflict must be settled in a peaceful way in the South Caucasus. Otherwise, it can prove fatal to this “militarized” region. Armenia has the strongest defensive potential in the region, but Azerbaijan spares no funds for the modern armaments. “Resumption of hostilities seems quite likely if we fail to take into account the persons in power in Azerbaijan. Those authorities can be compared with the Georgian authorities. The resumption of hostilities in South Ossetia, through illogical, is an accomplished fact: Georgians unleashed a war and were defeated. No doubt, the same will be with Azerbaijan, but we cannot be sure that they will show common sense,” Giragosian said. He expressed the opinion that the United State does not trust the Azerbaijani authorities. Giragosian said the large-scale reforms are in progress in the Armenian Army, which remains the region’s most efficient army. According to him, Azerbaijan has to prepare 10-12 years to achieve success. Should Azerbaijan unleash a war today, it will certainly lose, Giragosian said.