Oil prices will gradually rise this year with improved demand and falling supply, although tensions between the US and China will put pressure on the market, a Reuters poll showed.

According to a survey of 43 analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2020 will average $ 37.58 per barrel, which is 5% higher than the consensus of $ 35.84 in the April survey but still below the average of $ 42.37 since the beginning of the current of the year.

As the survey shows, American WTI crude oil in 2020 will cost on average $ 32.78 per barrel, compared with the forecast of $ 31.47 in the April survey, after the contract price fell to minus $ 40 last month.

“The rise in demand may be painstakingly slow in the coming weeks and months, but it is expected to gradually rise over the course of the year,” said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IEG Vantage.

Brent oil hit a 21-year low of $ 15.98 a barrel last month after a sharp drop in demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, in May, the Brent price recovered by about 39%, showing the best dynamics since March 1999 thanks to the strong commitment of OPEC + to reduce supplies.

“Oil demand has bottomed out and supply from OPEC+ and North America is falling sharply. The market is thus no longer as oversupplied as feared,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch, adding that there could be a considerable supply deficit in the second half of 2020.

However, the resumption of tension between the US and China has increased the likelihood of new problems in the global economy.

According to the May survey, demand may fall by 6.4-10.0 million barrels per day during 2020 compared with the forecast reduction of 9.2-10.6 million barrels per day in the April survey.

“From a peak annual contraction of 21 million bpd in the second quarter of 2020, we expect global oil demand contraction to eventually abate to 2.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.