The US-Turkey alliance is at a critical crossroads given the prevailing view in Washington that Turkey's strategic importance is no longer what it used to be, the head of the Eurasia Group, Jan Bremmer, told Kathimerini.
"We’re certainly at a turning point given the significant deterioration we’ve seen. Turkey has undertaken a major shift away from democracy, which didn’t bother Donald Trump but is a very real issue for Joe Biden. That overarching concern – on top of the S-400 issue, the Halkbank sanctions and fighting over Syria – and then the US pivot away from the Middle East towards Asia all spell problems for the long-term US-Turkey relationship. And now the Armenian genocide recognition, which has been an issue for many US administrations but that Biden is the one to actually pull the trigger on, is just the recognition of how much less important the alliance is," he said.
According to him, Biden does not believe that Erdogan shares the fundamental values of the United States. "He wants to see closer US alliances based on commitment to a rules-based international system and he doesn’t see Erdogan as a fellow traveler down that road."
The expert recalled that all US administrations since the time of Ronald Reagan have ignored the issue of recognizing the Armenian Genocide, not wanting to cause hostility from Ankara.
"Biden doesn’t care; [Barack] Obama had promised it but then pulled back, which folks like Samantha Power and Ben Rhodes said was a big mistake. Biden and his Secretary of State Tony Blinken made the promise knowing all that history, and Vice President Kamala Harris has co-sponsored the resolution. All the stars were aligned this time around and they made the decision months ago (I broke the story in March). in addition to all that, there is a growing sense in Washington that Ankara is just no longer a critical strategic ally the way it once was; this recognition is a symptom of the broader US-Turkey decoupling under way," he noted.