The international rating agency Fitch considers it unlikely that oil prices will drop significantly below $ 30 per barrel, TASS reported referring to a press release.

According to Fitch, the market is likely to face a shortage of production in the second half of 2020 due to a gradual improvement in demand and a decrease in supply.

The OPEC + agreement to extend the record decline in oil production for another month should accelerate the restoration of equilibrium in the market, Fitch noted. However, it is unclear yet whether the recovery in oil prices is sustainable today. Raw material extraction in countries outside of OPEC +, especially in the US, will have a significant impact on the balance of supply and demand. The normalization of oil reserves accumulated in the first half of the year will drag on for several months, the agency predicts.

The price of oil at $ 40 per barrel may lead to an increase in the production of US companies, which will limit the recovery of prices in the market. For $ 30, manufacturers will be able to stabilize their production, Fitch noted.

Fitch estimates OPEC + countries cut production by about 7.5 million barrels per day in May compared to March. In June, the aggregate reductions of the countries participating in the transaction should exceed 9 million barrels per day.

In April, Fitch kept its forecast for the average annual price of Brent oil in 2020 at $ 35 per barrel. In the meantime, a price increase of up to $ 45 per barrel is expected no earlier than 2021, and up to $ 53 per barrel - no earlier than 2022.