On February 6, Turkey experienced its most powerful earthquake since at least 1939. According to WHO estimates, about 23 million people, including 1.4 million children, are cumulatively in the disaster zone. It is possible that a large-scale humanitarian disaster will lead to changes in the social and political order of Turkey, writes Meduza.

The country will hold a presidential election on May 14, after which Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has held the post for two decades, could lose power. Ironically, in the early 2000s, Erdogan himself was elected on a wave of popular discontent with the government, which failed to cope with the consequences of the 1999 earthquake and the economic crisis of 2001. Now Turkish society can bill Erdogan and his party for failing to correct their mistakes and prepare the country for another disaster in the past years.

Already in the first hours after the earthquake, the Turkish leadership, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called not to politicize the disaster but to unite around a common grief. "I hope that we will put these terrible days behind us by showing solidarity and unity as a country and a nation. Today is the day when 85 million should be together as one heart," the president said in a Feb. 6 speech to Turkey's emergency management office. Erdogan's coalition ally, Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet Bahceli also stressed that this was "not the day to waste time in inappropriate polemics."

However, as Turkish society and especially the opposition gradually recovers from the shock, it starts to critically analyze the reasons for the incident and ask questions. Were all actions taken by the government to avoid the disaster on this scale, and did the rescue services do their job effectively enough to get the injured people out from under the rubble as quickly as possible?

Kemal Kılıcdaroglu, the leader of the opposition Republican People's Party, who is also the most likely candidate of the united opposition in the May 14 presidential elections, admitted in a video message on February 8 that he was stunned by what he saw at the scene: "I saw the situation of our people at the scene. I refuse to see what is happening outside of politics and to look up to the leadership of the country. On no basis will I talk to Erdogan, his palace and [related to him] beneficiary gangs. I will fight alongside my people."

A separate indignation of the Turkish public is caused by the largest media outlets in Turkey, about 95 percent of which are owned by Erdogan's inner circle. A correspondent of the Show TV channel abruptly interrupted a live conversation with a girl who had suffered from an earthquake, who began to complain about the ineffective work of the rescue services.

Turkish authorities have not ignored this criticism. As early as February 7, the Istanbul General Prosecutor's Office launched an investigation against journalists Merdan Yanardag and Enver Aysever, who criticized the authorities for "inciting public hatred and hostility." The next day, access to Twitter, TikTok and Instagram was restricted in Turkey.

Erdogan's three-month state of emergency (state of emergency) in 10 earthquake-affected provinces also raises many questions in Turkish society. In 2016-2018, a state of emergency regime was already in effect in the republic. Formally, it was declared (and prolonged several times) to overcome the consequences of the July 2016 coup attempt. In practice, Erdogan has jailed several prominent opposition figures and journalists critical of the authorities during these two years.

This time, the Turkish leader, realizing the precariousness of his position and that of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) amid catastrophic inflation and the collapse of the Turkish lira against the dollar, could theoretically extend the state of emergency to the entire country and even try to achieve the postponement of elections from May 14 to a later date. Moreover, according to one popular version, Erdogan had earlier decided to move the voting date from June 18 to May precisely because of the sharply deteriorating economic situation: even one month in Turkey can change a lot.

In legal terms, according to the country's constitution, the only reason for postponing elections for up to a year can be war, so it may be extremely difficult for Erdoğan to justify changing the date. However, after the 2017 constitutional reform, under which the president appoints a majority of the members of the Constitutional Court (12 out of 15), this is not such an insurmountable task.

At the same time, the head of Turkey can also use the earthquake to score political points, appealing to the idea of the need to unite around a common grief and presenting himself as the savior of the nation.

On the other hand, the opposition will increasingly remind Erdogan that he and the then AKP came to power in 2002, three years after the devastating earthquake in the nearby town of Izmit, which killed some 20,000 people, and the gravest economic crisis that followed in 2001.

Symbolically, it was during the AKP government that Turkey experienced a boom in the construction of apartment buildings, often of low quality. In 2018, for example, to attract voters to its side, Erdoğan's government even announced an amnesty for unregistered construction work, prompting Cemal Gökçe, then head of the national chamber of civil engineers, to almost prophetically warn that the decision could cause Turkish cities "to turn into cemeteries."

"Erdogan came to power with the devastation of the 1999 earthquake...It looks like he will leave [power] with the devastation of the 2023 earthquake. This earthquake, which claimed thousands of lives, will also bury him under the rubble of [his] politics," reasoned Jan Dunder, one of Turkey's most prominent journalists, who was forced to move to Germany a few years ago.

Either way, it is clear that the experienced Erdogan will do whatever it takes to stay afloat and face the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic in October 2023.

As the election draws near, the rhetoric of Erdogan and his entourage toward Western countries has become increasingly harsh and intransigent in recent weeks.

On February 2, ambassadors of nine Western countries whose consulates general suspended their work in Istanbul were summoned to the Turkish Foreign Ministry. The diplomats' fears were associated with harsh statements by Erdogan and other Turkish politicians after the acts of burning of the Koran by Danish far-right activist Rasmus Paludan. The next day, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu addressed the American ambassador and urged him to "get his dirty hands off Turkey."

Despite the deterioration in relations, Western countries were among the first to help Turkey after the earthquake. In particular, U.S. authorities sent 150 rescuers to the republic to eliminate its consequences. According to President Joe Biden, Washington is ready to give Ankara "any help it needs".

Sweden and Finland, whose accession to NATO has been stalled in recent months because of Erdogan's constantly changing position and the new demands that arise for Stockholm and Helsinki, deserve special attention.

Both candidates to join the North Atlantic Alliance sent their own rescuers and allocated funds to deal with the aftermath of the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria. Sweden gave a total of about $2.82 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and Finland gave $1 million.

The West's unconditional willingness to come to Turkey's aid in its hour of need cannot but change Ankara's position. It is obvious that Erdoğan, who based his election program also on the anti-Western narrative, would be forced to change his tone and attitude towards his NATO partners at least on the level of public speeches.

Besides it is impossible to exclude that the process of approval of Sweden and Finland to join the alliance will speed up. In any case, reaching a consensus with Northern European countries could be presented by the Turkish leadership as a diplomatic victory.

Assuming that Turkish elections do take place on May 14, the vote on Stockholm and Helsinki in the Turkish parliament should take place before the legislature goes on vacation before them, that is, about mid-April.

At the same time, Ankara, coping with the aftermath of the earthquake, is apparently distancing itself somewhat from the war in Ukraine and will be less likely to offer mediation initiatives - especially amid Western arms transfers to Kiev and the expected escalation of the conflict.

Now the Turkish leader, who had previously acted as a mediator in the negotiations, is likely to limit himself to telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, urging the sides to a political and diplomatic solution to the conflict.