Airlines expect passenger numbers to grow this year, but their profits will be cut roughly in half compared with 2025 amid high fuel prices, which nevertheless are not having a significant restraining effect on demand for air travel, AFP reports, citing data from a published forecast.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that the 370 member airlines of the organization, which account for about 85% of global air traffic, will carry 5.1 billion passengers this year.

This is 2.4% more than in 2025, when passenger traffic was estimated at 4.98 billion. The 4 billion passenger threshold was surpassed in 2023.

Answering journalists’ questions about the impact of the war in the Middle East compared with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “I do not see this as a crisis.”

He added: “You see an industry that is forecasting growth. If you exclude the impact of the Middle East, we are talking about 3.5% growth.”

At the same time, the growth in passenger traffic is being accompanied by declining profitability: the industry’s total profit is expected to fall by about half compared with last year, and Middle Eastern airlines are forecast to post losses.

“Military events in the Middle East and rising fuel prices have worsened the outlook for airlines,” Walsh said in a statement.

According to him, the industry’s profit will decline from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion this year, while the margin will fall from 4.2% to 2.0%.

“In practical terms, that means about $4.50 in net profit per passenger — half as much as in 2025,” he noted.

“Under these conditions, this demonstrates the resilience of the industry. But it is not even enough for a hot dog at most World Cup venues, and it does not leave much buffer in case costs or taxes rise,” he added.

According to IATA estimates, the revenue of the organization’s member airlines will increase by 9% and reach $1.165 trillion, but higher fuel costs will partly offset this effect.

The organization noted that airlines are bearing the brunt of the “fuel shock,” and although fares are rising, carriers are being forced to absorb part of the increased costs.

Profitability figures will vary by region. European airlines are forecast to be the most profitable (margin of 3.1%), followed by North America (2.5%) and the Asia-Pacific region (2.1%).

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and the inability to accurately assess how long the war will last, IATA does not expect demand to decline, noting that average airfares have fallen by 26% over the past 10 years.