The World Bank (WB) has warned that the continuation and expansion by Russia of restrictions on imports of Armenian agricultural and food products could have a negative impact not only on foreign trade, but also on economic growth, inflation, and the social situation in Armenia. This is stated in the bank’s published review, “Armenia Economic Developments. July 2026.”

According to the WB, despite the persistently high pace of economic growth, recent political developments in relations with Russia are creating new risks for Armenian exports.

The report notes that since the end of April, Russia has been gradually expanding restrictions on supplies of Armenian agricultural and food products. If these measures remain in place and are tightened, their consequences could extend beyond the trade sphere.

To mitigate possible damage, the Armenian government has already begun supporting exporters. In particular, subsidies are being provided to offset part of transport and customs costs when shipping products to alternative markets, including European Union countries.

The World Bank also recorded a decline in exports to Russia. In May, shipments fell by 15% compared with the same month last year, while Armenia’s total exports for January–May declined by 3.7%. At the same time, imports rose by 2.2%, and the trade balance deficit widened to a projected 7% of GDP.

At the same time, the WB notes that excluding the re-export of precious and semi-precious stones, Armenian exports continue to grow thanks to the mining sector.

Despite external risks, Armenia’s economy continues to maintain high growth rates. In May, economic activity increased by 11.7%, and over the first five months of the year by 8%. The main drivers of growth were services, tourism, information technology, construction, and the mining industry.

At the same time, inflation accelerated to 5.1% in June, mainly due to rising food prices. Against this backdrop, the Central Bank of Armenia kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 6.5%, while taking into account both inflation risks and the uncertainty associated with restrictions on exports to Russia.

Russia began imposing restrictions on imports of certain types of Armenian agricultural and food products at the end of April, citing sanitary and phytosanitary requirements. The restrictions affected, in particular, fish products, flowers, as well as a number of fruits and vegetables. Armenian authorities and a number of economists view these measures not only as trade-related, but also as political, linking them to Yerevan’s deepening cooperation with the European Union and the cooling of relations with Moscow.