Turkey’s accelerated shift from Russian and Iranian pipeline gas to domestic production and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) could reduce Tehran’s last major export market in Europe, Reuters reports.

According to an analysis by Can Sezer, Ankara could meet more than half of its gas demand by 2028 by expanding production and increasing LNG imports — a move that would drastically reduce its need for pipeline supplies from Iran and Russia.

US President Donald Trump has urged NATO ally Turkey to reduce its energy ties with Iran and Russia — a step aligned with Washington’s broader goal of isolating Moscow and Tehran from global energy markets.

Iran currently supplies Turkey with about 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year under a contract that expires in mid-2026.

The analysis shows that Ankara is unlikely to extend this agreement under the same terms as it seeks greater flexibility and diversity. This shift comes as Turkey’s energy ministry has increased domestic gas production and signed multibillion-dollar deals to import LNG from the US and Algeria.

According to Reuters’ estimates, domestic production combined with contracted LNG imports in Turkey will exceed 26 billion cubic meters per year by 2028, up from 15 billion cubic meters in 2025. This amount will be sufficient to cover more than half of the country’s projected annual gas demand of 53 billion cubic meters. The remaining import gap of 26 billion cubic meters will be considerably lower than the current combined 41 billion cubic meters supplied under contracts with Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan.

Sezer noted that Iran — already facing new sanctions from the UN and the West — could lose one of its most reliable export markets as Turkey positions itself as a regional gas hub.

Also, Ankara has expanded its re-export capabilities, recently signing supply contracts with Hungary and Romania through its state-owned energy company BOTAS.

While Turkey insists it will continue purchasing gas from all available suppliers, including Iran and Russia, its long-term strategy is increasingly focused on flexible LNG purchases rather than specified pipeline agreements.