Why did I sign the statement of November 9? The process of Shushi's fall played a turning role here. What is important here is not the symbolic value of Shushi's fall, but the strategic value. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of the Republic of Armenia (RA) stated this at Monday’s meeting of the National Assembly Inquiry Committee for Studying the Circumstances of the Hostilities Unleashed on September 27, 2020. In his remarks, Pashinyan specifically noted as follows:
After the loss of Shushi [town], [Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) capital] Stepanakert would be under attack [by Azerbaijanis], pressure on Martuni [town] would inevitably increase, and most importantly, around 25,000 of our soldiers would be in danger of being encircled.
The [trilateral] statement of November 9[, 2020] was already our fifth attempt to stop the war. The first such conversation took place on October 7, when I had called RF [(Russian Federation)] President Vladimir Putin to congratulate him on his birthday. He considered it important that I declare in one of the interviews that Armenia is ready to make compromises and, using this opportunity, he wants to make mediation efforts to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible. I said that I agree, while inquiring about the terms of the ceasefire. Our understanding was that the fire should cease without preconditions, the parties should remain in their current positions, after which consultations should begin on what compromises the parties are ready for. I said that this option is acceptable for us.
My second telephone conversation with the RF president that took place in the evening of the same day. And he said that he spoke with the president of Azerbaijan [Ilham Aliyev], but the latter said that he is not ready to go to ceasefire; that is, he does not agree to establish a ceasefire. Nevertheless, V. Putin said that he agreed to speak with Ilham Aliyev again the next day.
The next day, the RF president informed me that Azerbaijan has a precondition for a ceasefire: it expects Fizuli [town] to be surrendered to them without a battle and that the Armenian forces retreat along the Araks [River] to the Khodaferin Reservoir, so that the reservoir be under Azerbaijan's control and they can take water from there for irrigation purposes. In addition, the leadership of Azerbaijan expects to get back [Azerbaijanis] Guliyev and Askerov, who are serving their sentence for murder and kidnapping in Artsakh, considering it possible to return the [Armenian] captives in its turn.
Moreover, in the face of all this, an end to the military operations is not announced, but just a humanitarian ceasefire to organize the funeral of the dead.
After that, there should be no condition or obligation not to continue the military operations. I said that preconditions are not acceptable, because we had agreed with the RF president that the ceasefire should be established without preconditions. And then even if I agree to the withdrawal of troops, there is no guarantee that Azerbaijan will not continue the attack in case of withdrawal. However, I showed some flexibility by noting that joint use of the Khodaferin Reservoir water is possible. That is, I believe that the NK [(Nagorno-Karabakh)] may not prevent Azerbaijanis from taking water from the reservoir, the condition of Askerov and Guliyev's return can be discussed if Azerbaijan says how many Armenian captives it is going to return with the RF mediation, the condition of surrendering Fizuli without a battle and retreating along the Araks [River] shore is not acceptable, the proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire to bury the dead bodies is fully acceptable.
During our next conversation, which took place again on October 8, the RF President reported that Azerbaijan agrees to establish a ceasefire on the night of October 9-10. In order to discuss this, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia are invited to Moscow on October 9 to start consultations with the mediation of the RF. Also, the captives and the remains of the dead would be exchanged. I agreed to this proposal. After our conversation, the following statement was published on the RF President's website. "After several phone conversations with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the RF President appeals to stop the ongoing military operations in the NK conflict zone for humanitarian reasons. The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia are invited to Moscow on October 9 to hold consultations on this issue through the mediation of the RF MFA.”
On October 9, the tripartite meeting of the Foreign Ministers began, which ended on the night of the 10th with the following statement by the foreign ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia. "In response to the message of RF President Vladimir Putin and the respective agreements of the RF President, the RA Prime Minister, and the President of Azerbaijan, the parties agreed on the issues presented below.
“From 12:00 on October 10, 2020, a ceasefire is announced for humanitarian reasons, for the exchange of prisoners of war and other detained persons, the bodies of the dead, at the mediation of the ICRC and according to the latter's standards. Exact ceasefire parameters will be agreed upon in addition.
“Armenia and Azerbaijan will proceed with the mediation of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group on the basis of the fundamental principles of the settlement in order to reach a peaceful settlement of subject negotiations as soon as possible. The parties reaffirm the unchanged format of the negotiation process."
This statement was acceptable to us and naturally, after the statement was accepted, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff had to maintain the ceasefire regime. But after minor pauses, Azerbaijan not only was not maintaining that regime, but also further intensified its offensive operations, launching an attack on the territory of the now former NKAO [(Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast )], launching rocket attacks on Stepanakert, Martakert, attacking in the direction of Hadrut.
Of course, the troops were instructed to do everything possible to stop Azerbaijan's attack. But at the same time, diplomatic efforts were being made to establish and maintain a ceasefire in accordance with the Moscow document. As such, the deployment of Russian military observers on both sides of the border line was considered, who will monitor the situation and record violations of the ceasefire regime. Azerbaijan constantly avoided such a solution and further intensified military operations.
In the following days, I had several telephone conversations with the RF President, the main topic of which was the following: how to achieve the establishment and maintenance of the ceasefire regime? What is needed to achieve it? I have expressed my willingness to make the necessary efforts for this.
During our internal discussions, my conclusion was as follows: it will not agree to a ceasefire until the advance of Azerbaijani troops is stopped. This was, in fact, the balanced scenario for stopping the military operations. And I understood that if such a scenario could not be applied, and the situation at the ‘theater stage’ of war did not inspire optimism in this regard, then the only possible option remains the compromise option of stopping the military operations. Other options did not seem realistic, because days passed after Moscow's rather balanced announcement of a ceasefire, but it was not possible to establish a ceasefire.
It was for the first time on October 13 that I asked the RF president to answer the following direct and unambiguous question: what should I do to establish a ceasefire and stop the war? I had a detailed discussion with Putin on the same issue on October 16, and the RF president expressed his opinion that it is possible to talk about stopping the war in exchange for the return of five regions; of course, without any clarification of the status of NK. On that day, we agreed with the RF president to assign the teams to work on the crystallization of this idea.
On October 17, French President Emmanuel Macron made an initiative, who informed me that the President of Azerbaijan agrees to establish a ceasefire without preconditions from the midnight of October 18. Naturally, I agreed to it, after which, within a few hours, the following statement was agreed between France, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which was published late in the evening of October 17. "Armenia and Azerbaijan have decided to establish a humanitarian ceasefire on October 18 at 00:00 local time. This decision was made in continuation of the statement made on October 1 by the presidents of France, Russia and the US representing the co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, the statement made by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group on October 5, and in accordance with the joint statement adopted in Moscow on October 10."
Regarding this statement, even before its publication, we had consultations with our dead Russian colleagues, who welcomed the statement.
Contrary to the statement, however, a ceasefire was not even established on October 18, although we made all possible diplomatic efforts throughout the day to stop the war. After this statement, there was no pause at all.
Along with the failure of establishing the ceasefire, I returned to the conversation I had with the RF president on October 16. In the afternoon of October 19, I had a phone conversation with Putin, where he reaffirmed that it is still possible to try to stop the war under the conditions of the Russian plan developed years ago. And the condition is as follows: the seven regions are returned [to Azerbaijan] in the 5+2 format, the issue of the connection between Armenia and the NK through the Lachin corridor is resolved, Russian peacekeepers are stationed in Karabakh, the status of Karabakh remains undefined and the issue remains uncertain for the future.
We agreed with the RF president that I will express our position by the evening. In the afternoon, I first invited the representatives of the extra-parliamentary forces, later I called a meeting of the Security Council, with the participation of the RA president, the Catholicos of All Armenians and the parliamentary forces, where I said that I was going to call the RF president and say that I accept the proposed version. Moreover, as I had said, I did not expect that any of the invitees would share the accountability for that decision with me. I was just keeping them informed about the processes taking place.
I said at the meeting with the extra-parliamentary forces that by informing them, I am also informing the public. Representatives of 25-30 political forces were participating.
I called in the evening and told the RF president that I am ready to stop the war under such conditions. The RF President said that he will talk to the President of Azerbaijan and will call me. At that moment, two of the five regions, Fizuli and Jebrail, were practically completely or largely under the control of Azerbaijan.
The RF president called the next day, on the morning of October 20, and conveyed the following: “Azerbaijan is ready to stop the war, but expects to receive all seven regions in return," he said.
However, attempts to stop the war continued; and on October 23, the American initiative to reach a new ceasefire agreement emerged. The statement was agreed only on October 25. It was about establishing a ceasefire from 08.00 in the morning on October 26. The text of the statement was as follows: "On October 24, [then] Armenian Foreign Minister Mnatsakanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Bayramov met with US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun and reaffirmed their countries' commitment to implementing and maintaining the humanitarian ceasefire agreements reached in Moscow on October 10 and reaffirmed on October 17 by the statement made in Paris, in line with the statement made by US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 1. The humanitarian ceasefire will come into force on October 26 at 08:00 local time. The US promoted intensive negotiations between the foreign ministers and the co-chairs of the Minsk Group in order to bring Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to the peaceful settlement of the NK conflict."
This ceasefire agreement was also not observed by Azerbaijan. Usually, after the announcement of a ceasefire, the intensity of combat operations decreased for a short time, sometimes there were short pauses, but after a few hours, Azerbaijan was resuming the attack in full scale.
