The expert for the CIS Institute considers that escalation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is possible theoretically, but it will not lead to widespread fighting rather than limited local skirmishes, even with use of heavy machinery.
“Baku will not dare to unleash a blitzkrieg. If President Aliyev loses war, he would lose everything. He will be reminded of financial fraud, human rights, and opposition, including Islamic one which he has oppressed. One can dare to make such move if he is 100% confident in victory, while he lacks even 50%,” the expert said.
According to him, Azerbaijani President cannot be inspired by an example of Georgian counterpart, Mikheil Saakashvili, who ventured hoping that Russia would not intervene.
“However, combat readiness of South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot be compared with that of Armenia which will definitely intervene. So, Aliyev, unlike Saakashvili, has nothing to reckon on,” Alexandrov concluded.