Below is an interview with one of the leaders of the opposition Republican Party of Georgia, well-known political scientist Ivlian Khaindrava.

NEWS.am: What are major achievements and failures of the South Caucasus, particularly Georgia, last year?

Khaindrava: Among the achievements (which have yet to be practically applied) are first of all the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich, and the launching of the Eastern Partnership program, with the South Caucasus states involved in it. The latter is aimed at expanding the EU’s presence in the region, which, I, a Georgian liberal, think should be welcomed. Full-scale implementation of the project can improve the situation in the region. Last year did not see any disasters similar to the war in August 2008, though, on the whole, it was a year of depression and failures for Georgia. Last year was also “painful” for the Armenian economy, and Azerbaijan, in turn, has nothing special to boast about. As regards failures, it can — and must – be said that none of the states of the region did anything to develop democracy. Quite the contrary!

NEWS.am: What are the changes in the geopolitical situation in the region? Did the states of the region succeed in improving their security and reputation last year?

Khaindrava: As I have already said, we can only see signs of improvement. It is not clear whether – and to what extent — the opportunities will be taken. Georgia continued losing its reputation – none of the Western states invited our President to pay an official visit. As regards the multilateral formats, the U.N. General Assembly or the Eastern Partnership Summit in Paris, they do not count. Armenia attracted favorable attention due to its active dialogue with Turkey, and Azerbaijan’s reputation hardly changed in any way. Regional security remains a rather abstract concept, and we can easily speak of ever-present threat.

NEWS.am: Did any changes take place in positions and influence on the region by the Great Powers, Russia and the United States? Did any changes in the relations between the states of the region take place?

Khaindrava: The New U.S. Administration showed a more retrained and realistic attitude to Saakashvili. Of course, the United States is not going to turn its back on Georgia, but its aid to our country will depend on our ability to conform to the ideals we declared. Correspondingly, America (and Europe) once again resorted to a regional approach – they are expecting us (the states of the region) to be able to resolve our own problems and come to terms, considering each other interests. In this context, Georgia made a hope-inspiring decision to reopen the Upper Lars checkpoint at the Georgian-Russian border, which proved to be a piece of good news for Armenia.

Unfortunately, we cannot speak of any changes in the policy of Russia, which goes on viewing the South Caucasus as an area of its direct, or rather, “brute” influence. Since August 2008, Russia has beefed up its military presence in the region, which has not enhanced security, but has heightened the risks.

NEWS.am: What are your forecasts for 2010 in the context of a rather strained situation in the South Caucasus? Can a new military conflict break out or the “frozen” ones resume?

Khaindrava: I am not good at making forecasts. I would like to take advantage of the opportunity to express my wishes just before the New Year. I want the Armenian-Turkish dialogue to develop in conformity with the roadmap. It would be great if real progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process were made. We have to find means of resolving the severe crisis in the Russian-Georgian relations, resuming a direct dialogue between Tbilisi and Sukhumi (Abkhazia) and between Tbilisi and Tskhinval (South Ossetia). The war in August 2008 clearly showed the “explosive potential” of the frozen conflicts. Post-war Europe showed the best experience of settling disputes, finding common interests and forming mutually beneficial multilateral relations. It would be great if we, all together, progressed toward institutionalizing liberal democracy and could see the 2011 in in much higher spirits than 2010.

T.P.