The frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus pose a threat to Russia’s national security, said Anatoly Tsiganok, Head of the Miitary Forecast Center.

According to him, the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process may still remain in stalemate. “The conflicting parties go on holding opposite positions. External actors have disagreements as well. The Armenian side agrees to withdraw its troops from some regions of the security zone round Nagorno-Karabakh if Azerbaijan agrees to a referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status, that is, Nagorno-Karabakh’s to de facto independence from Baku,” Tsiganok says in an article post on Polit.ru.

The expert believes that the interests of the major actors, Brussels, Moscow and Washington, are not at all convergent. “Yes, the sides are unanimous about a peaceful settlement of the conflict, security guarantees to the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh; international status and land communication with Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status must be determined as a result referendum. The terms of the referendum must be determined by means of further negotiations as part of the peace process,” the expert said.

“However, there are disagreements. Moscow is secretly supportive of the status quo,” Tsiganok said. He pointed out Russia agrees to a change in the status quo, that is, to the withdrawal of Armenian troops from five regions provided a full-scale peace-making operation is launched, with Russian peacemakers constituting the greater part of the mission.