“As Georgia’s plans have met with what can best be described as abject failure, and with Ukraine now appearing headed toward Russian suzerainty, Azerbaijan has in essence resigned itself to the inevitable,” reads the “Ukraine’s Election and the Russian Resurgence” article by Stratfor expert Peter Zeihan.

The expert deems that Azerbaijan is well aware that Baku’s attempt to join EU or NATO depends on Georgia’s first succeeding in these initiatives. According to Zeihan, Azerbaijan always tried to “walk a fine line” between Russia and West.

However, “Baku would prefer a more independent arrangement, but it knows that it is too far from Russia’s western frontier to achieve such unless the stars are somewhat aligned,” the expert says.

Azerbaijan has “little things to bargain with”, as it holds talks on supplying its natural gas to Russia and not West or Turkey, Zeihan concludes.