In its monetary policy program, the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts an inflation rate of 5.5% to 7.5% for the end of 2011.

The CBA forecasts a 40.9% probability of an inflation rate of 5.5% to 7.5%. Also, the CBA forecasts a 31% probability of an inflation rate of 4% to 4.5%.

There is a 16.5% probability of an inflation rate of 7.5% to 9.5%.

The CBA forecasts an inflation rate of over 9.5% for the 2nd quarter of 2011 – one of the highest indicators over the last 15 years. The CBA assesses such a probability at 53.9%. The probability of inflation ranging from 7.5% to 9.5% is 41.4%.