“Armenia and Azerbaijan should endorse a document on basic principles to end stalemate on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by the end of the year, or they will face an eventual return to full-scale hostilities,” says the latest report released by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The International Crisis Group’s latest policy briefing, examines the two-decades-old conflict and concludes there is reason for optimism that the political stalemate can be broken in today’s more supportive regional environment. However, it also warns that both governments and the international community must step up their efforts, as the status quo is increasingly untenable.

The international community, in particular the U.S., France and Russia as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, should intensify efforts to encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to formally endorse the basic principles document and then open negotiations on a conclusive peace accord. The co-chairs should take advantage not only of their own productive collaboration, but also of current positive movement towards Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.

“Although a deliberate military offensive from either side is unlikely in the near future, the ceasefire that ended active hostilities fifteen years ago is increasingly fragile”, says Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project Director. “There has been a steady increase in the frequency and intensity of armed skirmishes that could unintentionally spark a wider conflict,” the expert says.