By the results of 2025, the birth rate among the Japanese is expected to be at a record low, The Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported, citing its own calculations based on statistical data.

According to the forecast of the newspaper, number of Japanese children born domestically this year will likely be around 667,542, compared to the number recorded in 2024 was 686,173.

This would be the lowest number since statistics became available in 1899, and it is expected to mark a new record low for the 10th consecutive year.

This forecast takes into account only those children born in families of Japanese citizens.

Regarding the number of births, the Japanese health ministry publishes preliminary figures around February of the following year. These include foreign nationals and Japanese born overseas. It publishes approximate numbers for Japanese nationals around June.

The new birth estimate is significantly lower than the 749,000 that the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had projected for 2025 in its 2023 medium-variant forecast.

It even falls below the institute's more pessimistic low-variant projection of 681,000.

That low-variant projection had estimated the number would reach 665,000 in 2029.

If the declining birthrate continues in Japan, there is a risk it will lead to a decrease in working-age workers, accelerating labor shortages in many fields in the country.