No breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process should be expected next year, said Thijs Rommens of the Institute for International and European Policy (IIEP).

There has been growing tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan recently. Noteworthy is Azerbaijan’s strongly worded statements on the possibility of a military settlement of the conflict, and Armenia’s statements more frequently indicating the possibility of recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state, the expert told 1news.az.

According to him, the domestic policy may be the cause of the sides’ behavior. However, it is clear that the solution should not be expected in the near future.

As regards the possibility of reopening the Armenian-Turkish border, the expert said progress in this matter should not be expected next year. The U.S. if, of course, for the border to be reopened, but the point is its being a key actor in the matter. Of course, as a global actor, the U.S. can employ numerous instruments to encourage Armenia and Turkey to negotiate. However, the resistance to normalization inside the countries show it is not an entirely international problem, Thijs Rommens said.

The U.S. can facilitate the reconciliation process, but it cannot make the two countries’ leaders act at the risk of their own political survival within their countries.

According to the expert, the U.S. and the European Union (EU) are not so active in the region now. The U.S. involvement in the protracted conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq is exhausting its resources. The Obama Administration decided to refrain from hinting at provoking Russia’s activities in the region, which is clear in the context of the “restart” policy.

Although Russia has recently been most active in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, its policy toward the region remains unclear. It support for south Ossetia and Abkhazia, close ties with Armenia, information on the sale of weapons to Azerbaijan, as well as problems in the South Caucasus – they all are factors complicating the problem. This uncertainty may be the most important international factor in the South Caucasus during the next few years.